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2011 NL East Pitching Preview: Mike Pelfrey and the New York Mets

Will Mike Pelfrey & The Mets Rotation Be Amazin' In 2011?
Will Mike Pelfrey & The Mets Rotation Be Amazin' In 2011?Andrew Burton/Getty Images
TheFantasyFix.comAnalyst IJanuary 20, 2011

The Metropolitans were seventh in team ERA (3.73) in 2010. Impressive right? You bet. But in fantasy terms, the Mets starting pitchers are merely irrelevant.

As for Johan Santana, who will likely miss the first half of the season recovering from shoulder surgery, it will be tough to determine what ADP (average draft position) is suitable.

My advice, though, don’t shoot for Johan. Let someone else take him in the draft. Unless it’s a very late round and you’re already secure with your starting pitchers, then it’s okay to take a risk and hopefully use him in the second half.

As for his teammates, there isn’t too much going for them. Just know your league's scoring, and then decide if you could use any of the Mets starters in 2011.

Mike Pelfrey won 15 games last year, had an ERA below 4.00, and pitched 200+ innings. In 2008, he won 13 games, had an ERA below 4.00, and pitched 200+ innings. It looks to me this is the type of stuff you’ll see from Pelfrey this year. In my opinion, 2009 was a fluke year (5.00+ ERA in about 185 innings).

We can all say Mike Pelfrey is not a strikeout pitcher. And his 2009 season, his fluke year in my eyes, was his only season with a ground ball to fly ball ratio above 1.0 (it was 1.06 to be exact).

Since 2006, Pelfrey’s ground ball to fly ball ratio has been 0.99 or lower, and when you consider all the outs involved for over 200 innings of work, that can be the difference between a 5.03 ERA (2009) and 3.66 ERA (2010).

Jonathon Niese has pitched himself into the 2011...

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