College Football Insider: Who Will Be the National Champion?

We have a big game coming up on the 10th of January.  The Auburn Tigers and the Oregon Ducks will play each other in the BCS Championship game in Glendale, Arizona.  At the time of this writing, line on this game has Auburn -3 over Oregon.  If you look at many of the predictions that are out there, you will see that a majority of the prognosticators are picking Auburn to win.

Can the Tigers beat the Ducks?  Why are so many people picking Auburn to win?  Do the Ducks have a chance?

Let’s find out in this in this extended preview of the BCS National Championship Game.

When Auburn has the Ball

Auburn is lead by Heisman winning quarterback Cam Newton and he’s been hot this season.  He leads a solid Tiger passing offense that is averaging 497 yards per game with averages of 210 passing yards per game and 287 yards of rushing per game.  

Of course, Newton leads the team in both rushing and passing scoring 28 touchdowns through the air to go along with 20 rushing touchdowns.  Newton is difficult to stop but if you stop Newton, you stop Auburn.  

But Auburn, and Newton are difficult to stop and no team was able to figure out the formula to stop them this season...yet.

The Ducks are allowing teams to gain an average of 331 yards per game including 214 yards through the air and 117 yards on the ground.  Those are some pretty strong numbers but the Tigers have met strong defenses this season and beaten them.  What can the Ducks do to stop Newton?

Like any quarterback, college or pro, you have to get pressure on that quarterback.  The problem with getting pressure on Newton has been when he is pressured, he takes off running and gains yards with his legs and that makes him so hard to stop.  If the Ducks can put pressure on Newton and force him to the side of the field where they faster linebackers are, perhaps they could hold him to just a few yards and prevent him from running all over their defense.

Oregon’s defenders may want to stay up a little closer to the line of scrimmage in order to react quickly when Newton takes off or apply pressure when he drops back to pass.  The Ducks secondary needs to cover the Tigers wide receivers (to include guys like Darvin Adams and Terrell Zachary) tight and not allow them to be open down the field options for Newton.

Shut down the passing game, make Newton run and that will make things much more predictable and much simpler to easier for the Ducks to defend.

When the Ducks have the Ball

So now that we know what the Ducks can do on defense to beat the Tigers but what can they do on offense?  The Ducks are averaging a whopping 537 yards per game on offense with an average of 303 yards on the ground and 233 yards through the air.  Their offense has been very tough to stop.

The Tigers are allowing teams to gain a total of 362 yards per game to opposing offenses.  They are allowing opponents to gain 111 yards on the ground and 250 yards through the air.  Their defense has had a solid season holding teams back and will face a very tough test against the Oregon Ducks.

So how does Oregon get past the Auburn defense?  They have to do what they do best and start off fast.  They have some great weapons in quarterback Darron Thomas and running back Lamichael James and those two need to crank it up against the Tigers defense.

The problems is, the Tigers can concentrate on shutting down James and that would take away a good part of the Ducks offense.  Since that will probably be the case, the Ducks need to get the ball to some of their other play makers.  Kenjon Barner can run the ball well and could be used often in this game (of the Tigers take out James).  

Oregon could also get the ball to their wide receivers.  Jeff Mahel has been spot on with his catches this season and is Thomas’ favorite target.  If the Ducks can get the ball down the field to their receivers this will take less pressure off of James that would allow the Tigers to forget about him and be focused somewhere else.

As soon as they lose focus on James, he can then take advantage and come up with a big play.  This would work well for the Ducks and should be something that they look into doing.

This game features two of the most powerful offenses in the NCAA so it promises to be a high scoring game.  The defenses will be tested heavily and whichever defense gets the most stops and plays the best will help their team win the game.  Stopping the opposing offense on just one drive could make all the difference in this game.

So who will win this game?

Honestly, it looks like a pretty even matchup and it could come down to which defense makes a stop on one single drive.  It looks like it could be a high scoring game unless either team manages to contain the other team’s star players (like Newton and James).  If you take Newton or James you even things up quite a bit.

But can you really take out Newton and James?  Probably Not.

Prediction:

Oregon 35 Auburn 31