Federer and Nadal Dominance Looks Set To Continue in 2011, Starting in Melbourne

With 2010 drawing to a close, attention begins to turn to what will happen in 2011. In tennis, the new year hits the ground running with the first Grand Slam, the Australian Open in January. With this in mind, it seems like a reasonable time to look ahead at the likely outcome.

The Australian Open Tennis Championship has reaffirmed itself, over the last 20 years or so, as one of the four Grand Slams and now attracts the world’s elite in both the men’s and women’s tournaments. Some years prior to that, the men’s event had lost its status, with players like John McEnroe, Bjorn Borg and Jimmy Connors rarely playing there. Borg in fact only played there once and Connors, who won it in 1974 and was runner up the following year, never played it again.

It makes one think of how many ‘Slams’ these three may have won had they played it more often.

Notwithstanding, the tournament has become one of the most popular with the players. The slowish, hard-court surface makes matches extremely competitive, which is why no single player has dominated the event like Roger Federer had done at Wimbledon and Rafael Nadal is still doing at the French Open.

In fairness to Federer, he has been the main man of this tournament over the last ten years or so, winning it four times, including last year when he beat Britain’s Andy Murray in the final in straight sets. He also finished as runner up in 2009 after a titanic struggle against his nemesis Nadal and these two will almost certainly be the top two seeds in 2011 and the favourites to win.

Nadal failed in his attempt to defend the Australian Open title in 2009, as he was still recovering from injury, but he did reach the semi finals where he lost to Murray. Nadal of course has now gotten back to his supreme best, so much so that he won all three of the other "slams" in 2010 and needs the Australian to become the first man to hold all four titles since Rod Laver in 1969.

Outside of the big two, one has to consider the number three and four ranked players, Novak Djokovic and Murray as distinct possibilities. Indeed, Djokovic won the Australian Open in 2008 and Murray reached the final last year. Both will be very determined to get on the same level as Federer and Nadal. On top of that, hard courts are their favoured surface which has to put them in with a real chance. 

Djokovic and Murray will also realize, both in real terms, that they are running out of time to become consistent Grand Slam winners.

The only other player outside of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic to have won a recent Grand Slam is Argentine Juan Martin del Potro, who defeated Federer to win the 2009 US Open Final. Injury however has kept him off court for some considerable time and it is said that he will not be up to anything like his best until halfway through 2011. If this is true, then he is ruled out of winning in Australia.

World No.5, Robin Soderling, is a very tough player to beat, but on hard courts he usually finds someone better. He certainly has the game to make the last eight and justify his seeding, but he will have to produce his best ever game to beat any of those who currently rank above him.

The same argument could be applied to the world number six and seven players, Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer. Neither have produced their best tennis in Australia in the past and although Ferrer has had a good year in 2010 and is a definite possibility to make the semi-final, he is absolutely no match for Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal.

Perhaps the only other player who can go all the way ‘Down Under’ is American Andy Roddick, who has been a semi finalist four times in the past. If in top form, we all know that his big serving game can trouble any opponent, but he will need to bring more than that to win the title in January.

The Australian Open Tennis Championship begins on 17 January and concludes on 30 January at Melbourne Park, Melbourne.