Sprint Cup 2008: As I see it

As many of you recall, my predictions last year were, dare I say, way off. It was also very long and mind numbing. This time bring shortness and sweetness. No analogies of the COT cars or the rookie class this year. I will just discuss the Chase as I see it unfolding along with some dark horse picks I feel will make some noise.

Let me also let it be known that yes we are already into the season (Race number five is next for the circuit), yet these choices were sketched out before Daytona on a napkin just riding home from South Carolina.

So sit back and enjoy as I once again try to prove how smart I am (or how stupid I sound) by predicting the Chase for the 2008 Sprint Cup. Place your bets now! The “Wise Old Owl” is about to speak!

My Top Twelve

12. Jeff Burton (RCR Chevy #31)

Burtonis set to leave RCR after this year… Wait is that official or did I let that one slip… I lose track of who knows what anymore. Anyway, he is still far too consistent and RCR equipment is too reliable to not in the top 12. A win or two may come his way, but he does not have the closing power to contend down the stretch.

11. Matt Kenseth (RFR Ford #17)

Matty will do his usual consistent run like every year. He will run strong early and get in the chase easily. The final ten will once again show the Roush and the Blue Ovals still have lots of work to do for the chase run. He will win a few and contend up until the end. I do not see him hoisting the new Sprint Cup trophy.

10. Greg Biffle (RFR Ford #16)

Biffle will return to the chase after missing it last year. Last year (2007) was just a disastrous start from which the #16 team never recovered. He will return to form with solid runs early and wins in the middle. He may be a dark horse to push for the title, but the Fords appear to be a year or two away from getting a grip on the COT set-ups for a serious threat. Wait until another year Biff.

 9. Kevin Harvick (RCR Chevy #29)

Harvick was my pick last year. After Daytona, I was riding high. That was the height of his season. He made the chase and that was it. More consistency with RCR is what he needs and will get. He will win one or two of course, but RCR is still well behind the rest of the bowtie brigade (well just Hendricks). He may sneak into the top five with some luck (see Bowyer in ’07).

 8. Jimmie Johnson (Hendricks Chevy #48)

To three-peat in any sport is very very rare. To sniff a title on a three-peat run is more foreseeable. I see him competing. Heck, he is in a Hendricks car and we all know that Hendricks will always succeed (except for Casey I guess). Hendricks now has a new poster child for his team that will become the face for a title run for him. Jimmie will be close, but his run will end and with it, I can finally smile knowing he is not the champion AGAIN.

 7. Tony Stewart (JGR Toyota #20)

Welcome to Toyota, Smoke. JGR was the first of the great Chevy teams to realize that Chevy can only see Hendricks and DEI and RCR as worthy of there time and money. So, exit Chevy and enter Toyota, a team notorious for taking over a division in three years. Year 2 looks good. Tony will win like always. He will prove that Toyota’s can compete week in and week out. Again, he will make the chase and get close. However, I see his new teammate as a more viable threat to a title. Hamlin will struggle but not Stewart or the new member of Gibbs Racing, Kyle Busch.

 6. Jeff Gordon (Hendricks Chevy #24)

Again, the Hendricks have a newer more prolific driver to thrust into the limelight. Gordo will make his run for number five. He will again win races and make the chase. The field is too strong against him and Johnson this year. NASCAR is not going to let two guys run away and hide this year like last. Time for new blood at the top. Move over Jimmie and Jeffie, here come Junior.

 5. Kyle Busch (JGR Toyota #18)

Now we get to the five that will push to the final race at Homestead. The younger Busch will be the darling of the Toyota camp this year. He will prove he can drive anywhere and anyway to win. Look for many wins out of this rising star and a push for the top. He may be close to a title, but I see him there in the end. A few breaks fall his way my put a Toyota in the title chair in its second season. However, I do not see it. Too much strength in the Top 4. A top five for the foreign label will be very well received in 2008.

 4. Kasey Kahne (GER Dodge #9)

Kasey now carries Budweiser. I still find that one hard to grasp. This squeaky-clean guy carrying the Bud sponsorship on his car. Nevertheless, remember, its all about the sale, not about the logic of the paring right. He will return to his 2006 form that led the circuit in wins. More consistency with Team Gillette and a greater focus on a title run will put right in the title chase coming to Miami in November. Races in the final will be his demise as Kahne struggles on big super speedways (Talladega) and paperclip ovals (Martinsville). He may sneak to the top but I think he is not the elite Dodge in the field. Keep reading, my fellow Treadneckers.

 3. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Hendricks Chevy #88)

Junior now has the equipment, team and engines to make serious runs at titles. I have been saying for years that DEI was never nor will ever be built to make a serious run at a title in the Sprint Cup Series. Many doubt my logic on that, but they also were ones most shocked by Junior’s departure of his Dad’s namesake team for the chief Chevy rival. The reason was simple. To win championships. Now Hendricks has his new poster child for more titles. You have the name (Earnhardt) and the equipment (Hendricks). This could be the start of a new Earnhardt era. This will become the Yankees of the NASCAR world. Out of the way Mears, Johnson and Gordon, Junior is taking over. But not this year. Give him until 2009 once he learns what he can really do. He will sniff a title and be the dominant bow tie car however.

 2. Carl Edwards (RFR Ford #99)

I debated the top four for a while. I see this as the year Edwards makes a serious run for a title. He is by far the class of the Ford drivers and aside from his Roush teammates Kenseth and Biffle, there is none better. He will win early and often. He will be well positioned in the chase. He will be there at Homestead and maybe just maybe sneak into the championship spot. This will be the year to do it, as the field is wide open in ’08. I think he will come up just short to my projected winner.

 1. Kurt Busch (Penske Dodge #2)

Dodge will be able to celebrate this year. Finally, Penske can smile with a title. A long time in the making, the #2 Penske Dodge appears to be primed for the title. Kurt is more mature and more patient then ever. The equipment and motors are strong and reliable. I do not see as many wins as others. I see top five and after top five. I see a well-placed push in the final ten, much like is title run years ago. He will hold off Junior and Edwards at Miami to win. I think he will need a top five to hold on as Edwards will win Homestead to make a final push. It might be the closest 1-2-3 finish in Cup history. In fact, that last race at Homesteadmay see many leads changes for the chase lead in the closing laps. Moreover, NASCAR will be pleased with a well-represented manufacturer parity in the top five (Dodge-Ford-Chevy-Dodge-Toyota).

The Near Misses

     Here are a few more that just may, with a little luck, sneak into that chase. If they sneak in as Bowyer did last year, some noise could be made.

1.          Denny Hamlin (JGR Toyota #11)

Hamlin had two years of solid runs. He will struggle in the COT’s. He may sneak in but I doubt it. Wait until 2009 where he will make his first serious title run.

2.          Bobby Labonte (Petty Enterprises Dodge #43)

Labonte has a year of learning under his belt with Dodge and with Petty. He will bring some luster back to the Petty Nation as he may sneak into the top 12 after Richmond. Give Petty Enterprises one more year and they will be back near the top.

3.          Brian Vickers (Team Red Bull Toyota #83)

Vickers now has a solid top 35 to fall back on. He proved last year that when in a field, he was as fast as anyone and arguably the best the Toyotas would trot out there. He will win once or twice and may be a top ten contender but fade outside the top twelve after Richmond.

4.          Clint Bowyer (RCR Chevy #07)

He was the dark horse that I picked to make a run last year. Nice to be right occasionally. I do not see him being in the top twelve as the competition ahead is just too strong. Maybe a serious run in 2009 is in the cards.

5.          Juan Montoya (Ganassi Racing Dodge #42)

After his fairly successful rookie run that included a win at a road course. He will showed continued improvement on the ovals and the short tracks. He has proven to be a quick study and will grow and improve race by race. He will win another road course and maybe one an oval. He is still a year or two away from a serious title but he will be great to watch over the next few years.

The Rookie Class

Quite simple will this discussion be. After the hard to swallow pill of lasts years’ whirlwind surrounding the IRL invasion of J.P. Montoya, I am still coming to grips with foreigners invading our treadneck sport. No longer is it an American sport.

So now, in 2008, we have more of the carnage of last year. People with open wheel backgrounds that think the full-bodied stock cars are their future. Well then simply put, my Rookie-of-the-Year choice is… Sam Hornish Jr. Why you ask?

Simple logic really… he is American. I still do not have the heart to pick someone from across the pond or south of the border just yet. When I am sold on their talents in NASCAR’s top division, then I will concede and accept them with open arms.

     Until then, Penske found a good one in Hornish and he will prove me right this year.

In Closing

So here, we have my look at NASCAR for 2008. Shorter then last years and much more accurate (I hope). Dare I question that this year’s top twelve is a better list then last years? In addition, if I recall, I only missed three from last years list (Biffle, Edwards and Newman). I missed Bowyer, Truex and Burton.

     I had Ragan as my 2007 RoY, so I was not too far off as he placed second. Montoya’s win proved him worthy of the top rookie award, I guess.

Welcome to 2008 and please, do not blame me if these bets do not pan out in your fantasy leagues. I am, after all, human like everyone else. However, when the “Wise Old Owl” speaks, much of what he says is accurate and correct. So burn rubber and bring on the season.

(Originally wrote in March 2008)