BCS Computers Hate Ohio State and Will Continue to Do So
With the first BCS standings poised to be released next Sunday, the final preliminary estimates from various "BCS experts" have Boise State as No. 1, Oregon No. 2 and TCU No. 3, while Ohio State was down at No. 5.
Ohio State, while No. 1 in all three human polls, is No. 10 among the five released computer polls.
The BCS heavily modified the BCS formula over the years and have ordered changes in the BCS computers in an attempt to avoid controversy and split national titles, as was to ensure that "name" teams continue to rise to the top of the BCS standings.
Essentially, the BCS computers are only allowed to evaluate teams based upon schedule. As such, "style points" play no role in the rankings of the BCS computers, nor does reputation matter.
So, the Buckeyes, who backed into the No. 1 spot in the human polls based upon Alabama's huge loss to South Carolina, reap the consequences of its weak schedule.
Not one of Ohio State's past opponents is ranked in the top 25 of any of the BCS computers. Of Ohio State's future opponents, Michigan is ranked No. 22 by the combined BCS computers and Iowa is ranked No. 29.
So, while four of Ohio State's future opponents have been ranked this season, the Buckeyes will likely end up playing no one of significance for the BCS computers.
Now, Boise State will unlikely remain at the top of the BCS standings for any length of time, as the Broncos have faced only one team (Oregon State) ranked in the BCS computer top 25 and only one team (Nevada) ranked by the BCS computers among its future opponents.
In contrast, Oklahoma and LSU sit on top of the BCS computer rankings, due to their victories over solid schedules, even if many of these victories were very, very close and suspect, such as LSU's win in spite of itself against Tennessee and Oklahoma's close calls versus Cincinnati, Utah State, Texas and Air Force.
Of course, the BCS formula counts human polls using total votes, not position, so Ohio State can stay No.1 while weakening its overall position as its loses No.1 votes. If the No. 2 and No. 3 teams strengthen their overall poll positions in the human polls, the Buckeyes could end up No. 3 overall and miss the BCS title game.
Ultimately, the Buckeyes will likely rise to the top of the BCS rankings as long as the human polls continue to keep Ohio State No. 1. Under the current formula, no teams ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final human polls have missed the BCS title game.
However, given the Buckeyes extremely weak overall schedule, Ohio State may be the exception to the rule. Buckeye nation really hopes it is not.
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