This fight is going to come down to if or when the fight gets into Saku's hands.
IF Sakuraba can get Miller in a submission hold, will Miller be able to escape as easily as he did with St. Pierre?
If not, can he outlast the submission attempts to win the fight? We must not forget that when Miller fought St. Pierre, he had to cut nearly 40 pounds from his natural weight of about 210. There is a reason Miller fights at 185. He does not want the fatigue problems that come with 170. I feel that he could have beaten GSP if they fought at Miller's division.
Also, he nearly defeated Jake Shields via armbar, but there was only ten seconds left in the round. If he had ten more seconds, he would have won. Also, I still feel that was a bit of a questionable decision.
You may look at his rematch with Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza for proof of his skill. He was defeating current Strikeforce Middleweight champion until a soccer kick to Souza's head ended the match, by No Contest. It is an illegal move in the DREAM promotion.
But, what would have won him the fight in PRIDE F/C, wound up costing him the win in DREAM.
What I think is that Mayhem avoids the submission, he will undoubtedly win.
Saku is nowhere near as good as he used to be. He is 41 years old. Almost twice the age of a number of fighters in MMA.
You could also just look at their records. Jason Miller is 23-7, with a few questionable decision losses within. That is a decent record, while Sakuraba's record is 26-13, most of his losses coming via knockout.
Mayhem is also one of the best in the sport when it comes to cardio and just working his opponent to death.
I see this being exactly what will happen in this fight. Miller is great at getting otu of submissions and will just out-cardio Sakuraba.
If not coasting to an easy decision, which is not his style, it will be a (T)KO victory for Mayhem.
I have a feeling that he will get Saku on his stomach and just rain down punches from the Crucifix position, much like the Hughes/Gracie fight.
While Miller is not nearly as naturally powerful as Hughes, the fight will go down in much the same way.
Prediction: Jason "Mayhem" Miller via TKO 3:34 in the second round.