This mock draft is totally based on Ted Thompson’s previous drafts with the Green Bay packers since his arrival in 2005.
The selections being made in the first two rounds are based solely on Thompson’s percentages, which are then selected by me.
The selections may not be my personal choice, however the selections made are due to Thompson’s history.
2005 - QB Aaron Rodgers, California (24)
2006 - LB A.J. Hawk, Ohio State (5)
2007 - DT Justin Harrell, Tennessee (16)
2008 – N/A
2009 - NT B.J. Raji, Boston College (9) & LB Clay Matthews, Southern California (26)
Total = 5 Offence = 1 (20%) Defence = 4 (80%)
Offence; QB = 1 (100%)
Defence; LB = 2 (50%) DL = 2 (50%)
Percentages/patterns/trends – four defenders have been selected by Ted Thompson, two being linebackers and defensive tackles.
With the Packers entering their second year in the 3-4 defence there is a good chance Thompson may keep up with his recent trends, picking a defensive player early on.
With the possibility of outside linebackers Sergio Kindle, Jerry Hughes or Sean Weatherspoon being on the board, a complimentary pass rusher to Clay Matthews looks tempting.
However, with the legal issues surrounding Johnny Jolly, who joins Cullen Jenkins with a contract renewal entering the 2011 season, the Packers are set to lose at least one of their big defensive ends. Both will be commanding a big contract and Thompson may have a dilemma on his hands as to which player Green Bay value more highly. The cost of keeping both players seems a too higher price to pay.
Look for Thompson to take the best defensive lineman available and therefore Jared Odrick of Penn State looks intriguing. A superior defensive tackle measuring in at 6’5, 305 pounds Odrick has the agility and ability to play the five technique.
Green Bay cannot keep hoping for Tennessee defensive tackle Justin Harrell to remain healthy and Jarius Wynn disappointed during the regular season.
Although not a flashy pick, which may not see a huge amount of game time (based on Jolly and Jenkins’ performances last year), Odrick will fortify and add depth to the Packer defensive line.
Probability/law of averages/long shot – suggests Thompson takes an offensive player as one hasn’t been selected since Rodgers in 2005. There has been plenty of speculation that Thompson will take an offensive lineman with the first pick this year.
However, Thompson has only selected two offensive lineman in the first three rounds since 2005 (Daryn Colledge, 2006 and Jason Spitz, 2007). In contrast, Thompson has taken five wide receivers/tight ends since 2005 accounting for 28 percent of his total selections.
Dez Bryant could fall to 23 and it would be very difficult for Thompson and head coach Mike McCarthy to pass on a top five talent. With the aging Donald Driver along with James Jones and Jordy Nelson, who haven’t commanded the second starter’s role, Bryant could well be a nice fit.
Thomas Howe’s pick based on Thompson’s percentages – DT/DE, Jared Odrick, Penn State
2005 – S/CB Nick Collins, Bethune-Cookman (51) & WR/KR Terrence Murphy, Texas A&M (58)
2006 – T/G Daryn Colledge, Boise State (47) & WR Greg Jennings, Western Michigan (52)
2007 – RB Brandon Jackson, Nebraska (63)
2008 – WR Jordy Nelson, Kansas State (36), QB Brian Brohm, Louisville (56) & CB Patrick Lee, Auburn (60)
2009 – N/A
Total = 8 Offence = 6 (75%) Defence = 2 (25%)
Offence; WR/TE = 3 (50%) C/G = 1 (16.7%) QB = 1 (16.7%) HB/FB = 1 (16.7%)
Defence; DB = 2 (100%)
Percentages/patterns/trends – offence seems to be Thompson’s port of call in the second round.
In 2006 Thompson drafted Greg Jennings and two drafts later selected Jordy Nelson. Now a further two years on since the Nelson selection could Thompson take another wide receiver in the second round?
The second round appears deep with receiver talent with the likes of Notre Dame receiver Golden Tate, Illinois’ Arrelious Benn, Georgia Tech’s Demaryius Thomas and USC’s Damian Williams.
Benn on first glance appears to fit the Green Bay mould with regards to yards after the catch and big play ability with the ball in his hands. However his lack of natural hands may deter the Pack.
The more realistic receiver to fall to Green Bay at 46 would be USC’s Damian Williams who does have natural hands and is one of the better route runners coming out in this year’s draft.
Probability/law of averages/long shot- the only defensive selections have been backs Nick Collins and Patrick Lee.
Look for corners Kareem Jackson of Alabama; Florida States Patrick Robinson and possibly Devin McCourty of Rutgers to be floating around come late in the second round.
Other possible selections here maybe safety’s Nate Allen, Morgan Burnett and LSU’s Chad Jones.
Thomas Howe’s pick based on Thompson’s percentages- WR, Damian Williams, USC