Why Cleveland's Fausto Carmona Is Too Big of a Fantasy Risk

A 6.32 ERA…

A 1.76 WHIP…

A 5.67 K/9 vs. a 5.03 BB/9…

Looking at these statistics from 2009, you have to instantly conclude that the stats belong to one of the hottest pitchers entering 2010 for fantasy owners, don’t you? 

Of course, we’re talking about Fausto Carmona, who is arguably looking at one of the biggest turnarounds ever.

This is the same pitcher who went 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA in 2007, but that seems like ages ago.  He has been abysmal since then, and that may be an understatement (just look at the numbers above).  Still, coming out of the spring he has once again thrust his name into the forefront of fantasy owner’s radars.

Check the stat line: 26.0 IP, 1.38 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, 0.69 BB/9.

Those are some amazing numbers, if you just want to look at them on the surface.  Of course, they also leave out some of the most important facts.

First, the walk rate.  In his 2007 campaign he posted a BB/9 of 2.55, which is a tremendous number, but his spring puts it to shame.  Since 2007 he’s struggled with his control mightily, walking more than five batters per nine innings each of the past two seasons.

Clearly, we knew he’s not as bad as he’s been, but he’s also just not as good as he was this spring.  No one is.  If he’s gotten his control back in order, things will certainly be better, but I’ll believe it once he does it during a significant stretch of time.

His spring strikeout rate was 4.15.

That just doesn’t cut it.  He needs to be elite in both the ERA and WHIP departments to overcome this type of number (especially since it’s hard to imagine him winning a significant number of games).  Over his major league career, his K/9 has been 5.58, but even that leaves a lot to be desired.

Even if we are to believe that he can be usable, despite failing to strikeout many, there’s one big issue hanging over his head from this spring…

His BABIP was .197.

There’s just no way.  Especially with that type of strikeout rate, his BABIP has a huge effect on his production, and Carmona was just exceptionally lucky this spring.  I can safely assume that he will be unable to repeat this type of luck during the regular season, leaving a huge question mark hanging over his head.

After looking at his spring numbers, there are three things that I can say:

1. While his walks may not be as bad as they have been the past two years, he’s not going to be as good as he was in the spring.

2. The strikeouts were hardly there this spring, something he needs to improve if he wants any type of success.

3. His luck cannot possibly hold out the way it did over the spring.

You add that together and the outlook just isn't that good.  Even if he does have his control back, he needs to increase his strikeouts and continue with some tremendous luck to be productive.

See how he starts the season.  See if he can string together a few good starts, not based on luck, before making a move on him.  Keep the name in mind, but at this point I wouldn’t bother taking the gamble on him.  Given the luck his spring was based on, he easily could bomb out yet again.

What are your thoughts?  Is Carmona someone you are willing to take the gamble on?  Why or why not?

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