Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Stretching back to the days of Jim Harbaugh, the Colts own the series with the Chiefs, winning 13 of the last 15 meetings straight up, including four in the playoffs, and going 12-3 against the spread. Indianapolis hopes those trends continue when it hosts Kansas City on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Chiefs opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 49.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.0-24.7 Colts (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Since taking that somewhat embarrassing loss at Pittsburgh, the Chiefs have won two straight, including a 27-21 decision over New Orleans last week. Kansas City spotted the Saints the first touchdown, then scored 21 unanswered points to take the lead for good. The Chiefs allowed New Orleans to get within three points with about two minutes to go, but they kicked a field goal to secure the victory and a push ATS as six-point favorites.

The Kansas City defense allowed Drew Brees and company to accumulate 463 yards of offense but also produced a pick-six late in the first quarter that eventually provided the difference in the game.

Two weeks ago the Chiefs went into division rival Oakland and dominated, beating the Raiders 26-10. Kansas City ran the ball for 183 yards that day, while holding Oakland out of the end zone for the final 57 minutes of the game.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

The Colts are 2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS over their last three games and should be 3-0 on both marks, after outlasting Tennessee last week 34-26. Indianapolis spotted the Titans an early touchdown and then scored the next 17 points. The Colts later fell down by a field goal midway through the fourth quarter but regained the lead on a short Andrew Luck touchdown pass with just under two minutes to go, icing the victory with a sack-fumble return score.

For the day, Indianapolis outgained Tennessee 422-331, as Luck threw for 353 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, and won time of possession by five minutes. The Colts now rank fourth in the league in average time of possession at almost 32 minutes per game.

Three weeks ago, Indianapolis rallied to beat Chicago 29-23, while two weeks ago it blew a two-touchdown lead and lost at Houston in overtime. So the Colts are that close to a three-game winning streak.

Smart pick

Indianapolis owns a short edge on offense, while Kansas City owns a slight edge on defense. Ultimately, teams that win the ground battles win most games and cover most NFL point spreads, and the team most likely to do that in this game appears to be the Chiefs.

Betting trends

The Chiefs are 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games against the Colts.

The Colts are 2-7 SU in their last nine games against teams with winning records.

The Chiefs are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games as road favorites.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.