BNP Paribas Masters 2016: Key Battles to Watch, Early Predictions for Tournament

The BNP Paribas Masters marks the final ATP World Tour Masters 1,000 event of the 2016 men's tennis season. With players striving to move up the rankings to qualify for the ATP World Tour Finals, there is plenty to look out for in Paris. 

Novak Djokovic will be hoping to put his injury-plagued season behind him by lifting the trophy on Nov. 6, but British No. 1 Andy Murray is the early favourite.

It seems unlikely there will be a big enough points shift during the tournament to knock anyone out of the qualification spots for the World Tour Finals, although David Goffin or Marin Cilic could sneak into ninth in the Race for London rankings—a qualifying position this year after Rafael Nadal’s wrist injury ruled him out until 2017.

The Paris Masters is played on an indoor hard court, which should favour baseline players such as Stan Wawrinka, but the astonishing consistency with which Djokovic and Murray clean up makes a shock victor unlikely.

Tennis TV provided a look back at last year's action between the two:

Key Battles

Murray vs. Djokovic

The two stars of the men’s game looked set to share all of this year’s Grand Slam titles before Wawrinka’s surprising four-set victory over Djokovic in the U.S. Open final. Since that day, it has all gone downhill for the Serb.

Djokovic will be desperate to gain some momentum before the World Tour Finals in November, where he'll want to ensure he finishes the year with a flourish. And with Murray breathing down his neck for the No. 1 world ranking, the pressure is on for a top performance in Paris. 

A recurring wrist injury continued to hurt Djokovic during the U.S. Open, as per Press Association Sport (h/t Eurosport), while an elbow injury forced him to pull out of the China Open in September, as per the BBC.

His only tournament since that defeat in New York was at the Shanghai Rolex Masters, where he crashed out in the semi-final to Roberto Bautista Agut.

Speaking after the match, Djokovic said “there are definitely things that I need to regain from the emotional, mental point of view,” as reported by Simon Briggs for the Telegraph. “I’m maybe just exhausted by the amount of matches I have had in the last 15 to 20 months." 

Andy Wong/Associated Press

If he can rediscover his form, there is no doubt that Murray is his main opponent in Paris. Murray is 10-24 against his rival, including two defeats in Grand Slam finals this year when Djokovic won easily in the French Open and Australian Open.

But unlike Djokovic, Murray is in excellent form. After a disappointing U.S. Open, the Scot has since won back-to-back tournaments. It would be a huge shock if these two did not meet in the final.

Goffin vs. Tomas Berdych

Just 190 points separates Goffin and Berdych in the Race for London rankings, and both will be competing in Paris. A win in Basel and a strong performance in Paris should see Goffin head to the year-end tournament.

However, Goffin has not reached a Masters semi-final since the Miami Open in March, when he lost in straight sets to Djokovic. Therefore, it seems the chances of him making the World Tour Finals in London are very slim.

A matchup between Berdych and Goffin could be crucial, though, with each player surely hoping to make it to the marquee event. 

Prediction: Murray to win the BNP Paribas Masters