Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots (3-0) may not yet know who their starting quarterback will be Sunday when they host the Buffalo Bills in an AFC East matchup. But the Patriots are solid home favorites as they try to beat the Bills for the 24th time in 26 meetings with Tom Brady set to return in Week 5.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as four-point favorites; the total was not available early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.0-12.7 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo head coach Rex Ryan has enjoyed some success vs. New England in the past, but his current team lost both meetings a year ago by a combined 15 points.

Ryan has joked about the possibility of wide receiver Julian Edelman lining up under center for the Patriots if Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett can't play, and anybody other than Brady would be good for the Bills in this situation.

Brady has burned Ryan a lot over their respective careers, and the key with him serving the final game of his suspension is to simply stop running back LeGarrette Blount, who leads the NFL in rushing.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

No matter who starts at quarterback for the Patriots, they remain the class of the league and just need to avoid being overconfident in this spot to move to 4-0.

New England head coach Bill Belichick has owned Ryan and defensively should be able to contain Buffalo quarterback Tyrod Taylor and running back LeSean McCoy. Holding Taylor and McCoy in check is all the Pats need to do, as they should not have a problem scoring against a defense that has surrendered nearly 23 points per game.

Smart pick

New England is 4-0 against the spread in its last four home games according to the OddsShark NFL Database, and it will count on the crowd to play a big role here as the fans anxiously await the return of Brady.

They saw the Patriots get off to a strong start versus the Miami Dolphins in their home opener and also seemed to be a factor in the shutout of the Houston Texans last Thursday night. With extra rest, expect Garoppolo or Brissett to play and lead the team to another win and cover in Foxboro.

Betting trends

The Bills are 2-23 SU in their last 25 games against the Patriots.

The Patriots are 9-0 SU in their last nine games in October.

The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four games at home.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.