How Long Will Angelique Kerber Hold the No. 1 Ranking?
Newly minted No. 1 Angelique Kerber is in Wuhan, China, taking on a strong field of top contenders who would all love to have that top ranking. Three weeks as the best in the world, and she is already understanding what it means to have a target on her back.
"I'm actually more excited," Kerber told the media at Wuhan, per WTA Tennis. "I know that I have the pressure on my shoulders because now nobody has [anything] to lose against me. The pressure is always on my side."
Indeed, the implacable German has already felt the mantle of her star to more limited degrees following her unexpected rise as the 2016 Australian Open champion. She defeated Serena Williams, rose to No. 2 in the world and then lost an important Fed Cup match to promising teenager Belinda Bencic.
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Nobody was going to ease up on Kerber, and after she had gone through a rocky clay-court spring, she did what other WTA stars have failed to do in recent years. She laced up her shoes to embrace the challenge, ran harder, played stronger and showed the mental toughness needed to be a consistent champion.
The 28-year-old fought to the finals at Wimbledon, the Olympics and the Western & Southern Open. She navigated huge expectations to win the U.S. Open and finally wrested that No. 1 ranking from Williams.
Kerber's been through a career's worth of wars in the last nine months.
She insists that her approach will be the same one that got her to No. 1, per WTA Tennis:
"Every player would like to beat me now. So I will just try to go out and not think about this. I'm going out to think like they are: to beat everybody on court as well, to win the matches. I think when I'm going with this focus in the match, like I did the last few months and tournaments before, and that worked. So I will try to continue that.
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Championship successes and continued ambition cannot be questioned. But how many weeks will she stay at the top?
By the Numbers
Kerber has three weeks in the books as the top-ranked player, but the work to stay there begins now. With 8,730 points coming into Wuhan, she leads Serena (7,050) by 1,680 points.
However, Kerber's lead to late October's year-end WTA Finals is a bit slimmer because the American does not have any points to defend from 2015. She leads the Road to Singapore with 7,801 points to 7,050, meaning that Serena can surpass Kerber with at least a 751-point surplus over the German's efforts through October.
However, Serena announced that she will rest from injuries and perhaps return only for the WTA Finals. This means that Kerber can strengthen her chances to hold on to No. 1 with deep runs this week at Wuhan and next week at Beijing. If she wins either one and finishes strong in the other, she almost assures herself the No. 1 ranking regardless of Serena's return to Singapore.
If Kerber falters with a couple of losses in her next few matches, Serena could win back the year-end No. 1 ranking if she wins Singapore. It would mean the European's time at the top would end at seven weeks and with a lot more points to lose with her Australian Open title to defend in January. It would be tough to get back No. 1 unless she had a dominating spring in 2017.
However, if Kerber piles up another 1,000 points in the next two weeks, maybe Serena decides it's not worth playing at Singapore. At the least, the U.S. Open champion could lock up No. 1 through January 2017 and the Australian Open.
That would be 20 career weeks at No. 1, more than past superstars Arantxa Sanchez Vicario (12), Jennifer Capriati (17) and Venus Williams (11), players who were all overwhelmed by the dominance of Steffi Graf or Serena. It's right on par with Kim Clijsters (20) and Maria Sharapova (21).
The 2017 Australian Open would then decide how much more Kerber could squeeze out of the No. 1 ranking. If she lost before the semifinals, it would be tough for her to make it back, especially if Serena regrouped to take the title.
Other Stars in Pursuit?
Meanwhile, stars Garbine Muguruza (5,830 points) and Agnieszka Radwanska (5,530 points) would need to go on a dominant stretch to challenge for No. 1. If either one wins the Australian Open, it could be enough to swing the No. 1 ranking and roar ahead with momentum.
Muguruza is the younger player with greater tools, but lately she's been almost a non-factor for big titles after winning the French Open in early June.
The 22-year-old prefers clay, but she has a terrific power game and could kick-start her own No. 1 campaign by winning Singapore before heading into 2017. She seems to thrive on streaky confidence so far, as she looks to mature into a consistent champion.
There's also the possibility that another version of Kerber is waiting in the wings. That is, if there's another veteran pushing into her late 20s who is ready to lift her talent and grind away for big titles while mastering the emotional drives necessary to be the best.
How about a return to glory for Caroline Wozniacki, who has been rising up the rankings once again about five years since her long stint (67 career weeks) as the No. 1 player? Or perhaps Petra Kvitova, two-time Wimbledon winner, can harness her power and elevate her defense and footwork on slower courts.
Then again, younger players like Simona Halep, Karolina Pliskova and Madison Keys all have the talent to challenge for No. 1, provided they can track down every ball, beat back adversity and win huge matches, often.
Meanwhile, Kerber is the standard that they witness. The German star has built her fabulous game on strong, retrieving legs, lengthy stokes, assertiveness and big-time toughness. Now that she's tasted success at the top, don't expect her to rest on her laurels. She's endured too many years, suffered through too many disappointments of unfulfilled potential and worked hard to find her game.
Kerber's in control. As long as she keeps winning, she can stay at the top for a long time. But it's not going to be easy, and she knows it. That's the reason why she's climbed to the top in the first place. There's no time to think about the glory, only grinding out the next match.
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