Is Blake Bortles Overrated?
The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't familiar with tight fourth-quarter scenarios. That could help explain why the 0-3 Jags have already lost two games this season in which they possessed the ball with a chance to win in the final minutes.
In both situations, the Jaguars offense appeared tentative.
Trailing the Green Bay Packers by four points in Week 1, the offense took over on its own 37-yard line with 3:17 to play. On the ensuing drive, Jacksonville ran 12 plays. On only four of those plays did quarterback Blake Bortles attempt a pass that traveled more than seven yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
To boot, instead of throwing beyond the sticks on a do-or-die 4th-and-1 play from the Green Bay 14-yard line in the dying seconds, the Jaguars ran a bubble screen to Allen Hurns four yards behind the line of scrimmage.
Things got worse in a Week 3 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Trailing Baltimore by two points midway through the fourth quarter, Jacksonville ran eight plays on back-to-back drives. But on none of those plays did Bortles attempt a pass that traveled more than five yards beyond the line of scrimmage. At the conclusion of the first drive, Bortles checked down to the line of scrimmage despite facing no pressure on 3rd-and-20.
Now up by one, the Jaguars got the ball back with 5:14 to play. They ran twice in a row, gaining zero yards, and then Bortles threw an interception on a seven-yard pass on third down.
Down by two again, the Jacksonville offense took over on its own 25-yard line with 1:02 to play. On that final drive, it ran four plays. On only one of those plays did Bortles attempt a pass that traveled more than five yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Fifteen fourth-quarter plays. Only one throw that traveled more than seven yards.
It's possible the Jaguars don't know what they're doing. But it's also possible they have taken a conservative approach to those situations because there's a lack of trust in Bortles or even because Bortles doesn't trust himself. After all, look at what happened on the downfield throws he attempted in crunch time against the Packers:
1. 2nd-and-10 on the Jacksonville 48-yard line, 2:14 to play: 30-yard throw to Allen Robinson is incomplete.
2. 4th-and-14 on the Jacksonville 44-yard line, 1:53 to play: 13-yard throw intended for Julius Thomas is intercepted. The pick is negated by a defensive holding penalty.
3. 2nd-and-4 on the Green Bay 45-yard line, 1:15 to play: 19-yard throw to Robinson is complete, but Robinson fumbles before recovering at the 23-yard line.
4. 1st-and-10 on the Green Bay 23-yard line, 52 seconds to play: Pass intended for Robinson in the end zone is a jump ball. Nearly caught but also nearly intercepted.
Four deep throws, three near-disasters, one positive play.
On the two occasions in which the Jaguars either went deep or appeared as though they were intending to go deep on that final drive against Baltimore, they failed. On the first play, Bortles kept the ball far too long under pressure and took a seven-yard sack. On the second occasion, he threw a game-sealing interception.
"We probably got a little conservative," said Hurns after the Baltimore loss, per Ryan O'Halloran of the Florida Times-Union, "that's what I'm thinking."
"I felt like we got conservative with six minutes left in the game," added defensive tackle Sen'Derrick Marks, according to Mike DiRocco of ESPN.com. "You can't do that. If it comes down to it and it bites you in the butt like it did [Sunday], then it's basically that's why you're the [expletive] Jaguars. You can't do that. You have to put teams away."
Do the Jaguars trust Bortles? Does Bortles trust himself? These are important questions because, on the surface, it did appear as though the No. 3 overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft made plenty of progress in his second season.
This was supposed to be a breakout year, especially now that it appears he has more than enough support on both sides of the ball.
Instead, Bortles ranks tied for second in the NFL with six interceptions and is the league's fifth-lowest-rated passer; Pro Football Focus rates him as the least accurate qualified passer in the league on deep throws, and his Jaguars are 0-3.
"The plays are there. The calls are there," Bortles said this week, per Gene Frenette of the Times-Union. "I think it's really a lot on me and not executing them."
Bortles' lack of execution may come as a surprise for many who figured he'd become a star in 2016 after more than tripling his touchdown total and boosting his passer rating by 18.7 points in his second season. The hype machine was on high for much of the offseason, producing headlines like these and enough buzz to land the 2015 league interception leader in the No. 56 spot on the NFL's top 100 players list, ahead of fellow quarterbacks Andrew Luck, Kirk Cousins, Alex Smith and Derek Carr.
But rather than Bortles regressing, it's possible his flaws have been magnified by the added pressure associated with higher expectations, as well as the fact he and the Jaguars have lost two close games in September.
The truth is, Bortles wasn't a very good quarterback last season. Instead, he padded his statistics in garbage time and/or in lopsided games.
With his team trailing by 17 or more points last season, Bortles ranked third in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least 10 attempts with a 116.9 passer rating. But when the Jaguars were tied or leading/trailing by one score, he ranked 29th in football among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts with an 82.3 rating.
He wasn't as good in blowouts as a rookie, but he was even worse in close games. Early this year, it's been the same story.
| 2014 | 62%, 3 TD/3 INT, 7.9 YPA, 83.6 rating | 56%, 3 TD/11 INT, 5.2 YPA, 57.7 rating |
| 2015 | 67%, 7 TD/2 INT, 9.0 YPA, 116.9 rating | 57%, 18 TD/9 INT, 6.6 YPA, 82.3 rating |
| 2016 | 61%, 2 TD/1 INT, 6.8 YA, 86.8 rating | 59%, 1 TD/5 INT, 6.4 YPA, 50.9 rating |
| Total | 63%, 12 TD/6 INT, 8.1 YPA, 95.7 rating | 57%, 22 TD/25 INT, 6.0 YPA, 70.0 rating |
Among the 15 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts when trailing by 17-plus points since 2014, Bortles has the fifth-best passer rating (95.7). Meanwhile, among the 32 quarterbacks with at least 300 attempts in one-score games during the same stretch, he ranks dead last with a rating of just 70.0.
| Blake Bortles | 57.2 |
| Jameis Winston | 57.9 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 59.6 |
| Cam Newton | 59.7 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 60.4 |
He has padded his stats against bad defenses. His four highest-rated games last season came against the four worst defenses Jacksonville faced, in terms of points allowed. In those four games against 27th-ranked Tennessee, 26th-ranked Tampa Bay, 32nd-ranked New Orleans and 25th-ranked Indianapolis, Bortles completed 67.2 percent of his passes, threw 16 touchdowns to three interceptions, averaged 9.0 yards per attempt and posted a 127.0 passer rating.
Meanwhile, in five games against top-10 defenses Houston, Carolina, New England and the Jets, he completed just 55.6 percent of his passes, threw eight touchdowns to 10 interceptions, averaged 6.9 yards per attempt and posted a 69.8 rating. The Jags were 0-5 in those games, but only two were blowouts.
Of course, quarterbacks are expected to perform better against weaker defenses, but ESPN.com's Bill Barnwell noted in the offseason that the difference between Bortles' numbers against his weaker opponents and his numbers against his stronger opponents was atypically large.
Bortles' 2015 numbers were inflated quite a bit, especially when you consider he might have actually been lucky last year. According to Football Outsiders, Bortles threw a tied-for-league-high nine would-be interceptions that were dropped by defensive players last season. If you account for those and remove picks that came off deflections, Bortles might have thrown a ridiculous 26 or more interceptions in 2015 had he not been—by that outlet's measure—the fourth-luckiest quarterback in football.
It should be no surprise that, this year, two of his touchdowns and none of his interceptions came in the second half of a blowout loss to a San Diego Chargers team that ranks in the bottom 10 in total defense.
What's more, six of the nine sacks Bortles has taken this year came in either the fourth quarter against Green Bay or the fourth quarter against Baltimore. He also threw two interceptions in the fourth quarter against the Ravens and had a pick nullified by a penalty on that final drive against the Packers.
He could still improve in 2016, but the numbers and the game tape indicate that hasn't happened early in his third season.
"I'm hoping he isn't trying to put it all on him and [that's] created some anxiety and he's pushing himself," Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley said this week, according to the Times-Union's Phillip Heilman. "You're seeing some inconsistency at times. That's been some of my conversation with him."
Bortles' head could certainly be playing a role. He plays the most cerebral position in American sports. It's easy to psych yourself out.
That would be an easy way to explain why it appears Bortles has become sloppy with his mechanics, which SB Nation's Alfie Crow notes have "reverted back to what they looked like his rookie season."
"He's throwing off his back foot a lot, he's sailing passes and he's not squaring his shoulders," added Crow. "Bortles showed a lot of improvement in these areas last season after working a lot with QB guru Tom House in the offseason prior to the 2015 season and it paid dividends. This season, he's just a mess."
Bortles started off the Baltimore game well, setting his feet and delivering a series of well-thrown passes in the first quarter. But he wasn't quite in rhythm with his pass-catchers and completed just four of his first nine passes, and then he threw off his back foot in a panic move with little pressure on a first-down play late in the quarter.
That resulted in an interception, and Bortles' mechanics suffered for the remainder of the day. He failed to step into his throws far too often. And sure, that isn't always possible when under pressure, but his pocket presence leaves a lot to be desired.
We saw the same thing against San Diego...
And against Green Bay.
Bortles is only 24. When Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo were his age, neither had started an NFL game. These may very well be growing pains, so it's far too early to consider giving up on the Central Florida product.
Still, with 32 starts under his belt, it's discouraging that bad habits haven't died and he's continued to fall short in big spots. He's got three extremely talented young receivers to throw to, a solid offensive line and an improved defense that has given the Jags a chance to win two of their three games, but PFF grades him as the worst offensive player on an 0-3 team.
Remember, Blaine Gabbert was also a top-10 pick in Jacksonville, and it took the team less than three years to cut bait. While Bortles hasn't been close to as bad as Gabbert, patience levels have to be dropping for a team that hasn't posted a winning record since 2007.
Unless otherwise indicated, raw statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.
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