Atlanta Falcons vs. Oakland Raiders Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Oakland Raiders will play their home opener Sunday as solid favorites against the Atlanta Falcons, gunning for their first 2-0 start since 2002. The Raiders are coming off a 35-34 road win over the New Orleans Saints last week as 2.5-point underdogs on a two-point conversion in the final minute.

Point spread: The Raiders opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.2-22.1 Raiders (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Unlike Oakland, Atlanta failed to come through in the clutch in Week 1, falling 31-24 at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But that's not to say the Falcons did not play well at times because quarterback Matt Ryan still threw for a game-high 334 yards and two touchdowns.

Ryan has the ability to keep his team in this game against the Raiders, much like Drew Brees did for the Saints. Atlanta has better offensive talent overall, which could be the difference. Plus, the Falcons are an impressive 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 as underdogs according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

Why the Raiders can cover the spread

Oakland has not made the playoffs since losing to the Bucs 48-21 in Super Bowl XXXVII after the 2001 season. This team is good on both sides of the ball and has the better coach in Jack Del Rio, who made the gutsy decision to go for two at New Orleans rather than kick the extra point and head to overtime—which was the right decision according to website PredictionMachine.com.

Led by quarterback Derek Carr, the Raiders were one of the most hyped teams going into the regular season, and a 2-0 start would go a long way to help build confidence for the rest of the year. The favorite has gone 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings, giving Oakland an edge.

Smart pick

This is almost uncharted territory for the Raiders, who are 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after winning as underdogs. Then again, Atlanta has lost five in a row following a loss as a favorite, so those trends just about cancel each other out. Oakland will reverse its trend and cover the spread in a fairly easy home victory here.

Betting trends

The favored team is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six games in this matchup.

The Raiders are 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after winning as an underdog.

The Falcons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.