US Open 2016 Women's Semifinals: Williams vs. Pliskova Preview, Predictions

Serena Williams was not to be denied as she rode a spirited effort over Simona Halep to land in the 2016 U.S. Open semifinals. She’s not just a superstar champion but a survivor who usually saves her best tennis for the biggest moments.

Standing in her way is tall, athletic Karolina Pliskova, who is finally putting together her talent with the composure that she has lacked in Grand Slam matches. But make no mistake about it, Pliskova is not a surprise semifinalist but a legitimate title contender who has been building impressive momentum the past few weeks.

Serena vs. Pliskova is worthy of a final, and it could test the American legend’s resolve and stamina. Yet, she’s seen countless challengers line up to dethrone her, and eventually she sends them packing after their flirtation with fame.

Will it be any different with the 24-year-old Pliskova looking for her first major final? It’s an awesome pairing that could turn in any number of directions, but the ultimate test for both players. Find out why.

Who Has the Historical Edge?

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They met once in summer 2014 at the Stanford classic on the West Coast of the United States. A typically small field that Americans like to play, Serena removed Pliskova 7-5, 6-2 in a rather routine match in the round of 16. There’s little about that match that matters now.

Everything else about their histories favors the great Serena. There’s no use presenting a tale of the tape. Pliskova does not have the years, experience or resume to match Serena’s all-time legacy that includes 22 major titles and 309 weeks at No. 1.

If intangibles, playing through pressure and championship moments count for anything at all, this is a major advantage for the great American.

On the other hand, if we measure only the past few weeks, Pliskova’s play has been the top of the WTA. She’s going to have to draw on her recent play and ignore the starstruck emotions of playing Serena in New York.

Pliskova at the US Open

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Wind back to the Western & Southern Open in August, where Pliskova crushed French Open champion Garbine Muguruza and Australian Open champion Angelique Kerber on her way to picking up the biggest title of her career. Furthermore, she denied Kerber the WTA No. 1 ranking, keeping it in Serena’s hands.

Since, the Czech has not missed a beat, smashing four of her five opponents. Her big test was a three-set thriller over Venus Williams in the fourth round, a match that might do more good for her growth and chance at a major title. She played with cool nerves, beating a legendary American in New York and withstanding the pressures of important tiebreaker points to decide the match.

She took less than an hour to overpower quarterfinalist Ana Konjuh, using her sinewy smoothness to dominate with the power and grace that makes the game seem effortless for her when she’s in the zone. The best sign of her newfound maturity was how she managed her points. While Konjuh pressed to match Pliskova’s 15 winners, the Czech committed only 12 unforced errors while Konjuh unraveled with 27. The difference was a whopping gap with Pliskova winning 59 points and Konjuh only 34.

“Her serve is just too good," Konjuh said to the media, via CBS Sports. "Today on the court, she found her rhythm and took the opportunities that I gave her.

Pliskova’s blend of power and patience is proving to be a rising threat on the WTA.

Serena at the US Open

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The biggest concern for Serena was a sore shoulder she had been favoring since the Olympics. She skipped Cincinnati’s Western & Southern Open, rested up and promptly mowed through her first-week cupcake lineup. It was the perfect tune-up to test her health, regain her timing and bear down on the contenders beginning with quarterfinalist Simona Halep.

Serena has only dropped one set in five matches, needing a third set and over two hours to defeat Halep 6-2, 4-6, 6-3. Best of all, she served 18 aces (Halep had only one ace) in 14 service games, and she backed up her power by winning 26 of 32 points at net, an impressive and aggressive stance for the American against one of the best retrievers in the business.

Can she continue her momentum against the bigger-hitting Pliskova?

Biggest X-Factors

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We’ve touched on Serena’s massive advantage with experience, but on the other hand Pliskova has nothing to lose. Well, not entirely. Pliskova is not exactly sneaking up on Serena for a classic ambush the way Roberta Vinci did a year ago.

Serena is aware that Pliskova can match her serving. The Czech easily leads the WTA with over 400 aces in 2016. There’s nothing like stopping an opponent’s momentum with a few big bombs, and both players are capable of keeping the pressure on the other. It might be hard for either player to get in a comfortable rhythm against the other, but the player who gets a nice streak or two could be the victor.

Finally, Pliskova is aware that New Yorkers will back Serena. She managed her emotions against Venus, saying after the match, according to Steve Tignor of Tennis.com, “I don’t want to show even the opponent, and even the crowd and the people, any frustration.”

Maybe that focus will pay off, or maybe Pliskova will not be able to bottle up her tough moments against Serena. It’s a different challenge at this point against one of history’s greatest stars.

Serena Will Win If...

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Serena will not get to the net the way she did against the softer-hitting Halep. This will be a match with shorter points, bigger strokes and fewer opportunities for control. The most important key for Serena is to stay patient for her opportunities and put most of them away.

That means defending her serve and understanding that she must stay positive when returning Pliskova’s serves. If she puts pressure early on Pliskova’s serve and ground game, she could cruise to an early lead and ride it on out for the victory.

Serena would rather not get behind or lose the first set, but she’s often better when she’s desperate, able to turn the tables when coming from behind. Again, she will need to establish an opportunistic ground game, hit some clean winners and trust that she can stay the course.

If Serena is at her best, she will win.

Pliskova Will Win If...

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Pliskova was fortunate to get the early match on Wednesday, meaning that she gets about half a day of extra rest. She’s 10 years younger than Serena and gets to play the American 24 hours after Serena went through a three-setter. This could be a big physical edge if it plays out to a third set.

The Czech has made short work of her opponents, and the majority of her success has come when she gets early control of a point and finishes it with only a few strokes. She’s one of the few players who could conceivably beat Serena by dictating play, at least for a good share of the match. If she controls most of the points, she will likely win.

Like Serena, Pliskova will find it difficult to create break points, but it’s more critical that she forgets the moment and plays each point like a practice session. How does her coaching staff help her play loose and lethal and put away any tightness?

One point at a time. It’s the old adage about how to eat an elephant. It takes one bite at a time. Maybe when the match is over, she can think back.

Prediction

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As we were reminded with Andy Murray, there’s no such thing as destiny for a dream matchup. It might seem like Serena and Kerber have to meet for the winner to get two majors in 2016 and the No. 1 ranking, but really it will have nothing to do with Serena vs. Pliskova in the semifinals.

Early in the week, I took Serena to defeat Pliskova in a tough, hard-fought semifinal. Three sets is very likely with both players getting a couple good streaks to set up a thrilling, draining finish. The difference could be a botched putaway or a wonderful defensive retrieval.

In a match like this, nerves and pressure could be the difference, and although Serena has faltered a few times in the past year, she’s still the best bet because she’s been through it all.

Serena in three sets to get to the final and defend her No. 1 ranking.