Troy Trojans vs. Clemson Tigers Betting Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick

Clemson owns a 16-game home winning streak, going 9-4-3 against the spread in the process. Meanwhile, Troy is 5-1 ATS over its last six road contests. So what's the smart bet for Saturday afternoon's Tigers vs. Trojans battle at Death Valley?

Point spread: The Tigers opened as 34-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 39.4-12.2 Tigers (College football picks on every game)

Why the Troy Trojans can cover the spread

Troy opened its 2016 campaign with a 57-17 romp over Austin Peay last Saturday. The Trojans trailed the Governors 14-13 after one quarter and then scored the game's next 24 points to take over. And despite falling down against the spread by 42 points, Troy eventually came within one point of a push. For the night, the Trojans racked up 706 yards of offense, 383 on the ground and 323 through the air.

Junior quarterback Brandon Silvers, making his 23rd career start, hit on 20 of 27 throws, with two touchdown passes against zero interceptions. Running back Jordan Chunn, who is back after missing almost all of last season with a broken collarbone, rushed 13 times for 161 yards and a touchdown.

Troy returned 13 starters this season, six on offense and seven on defense, as they shoot to improve upon their 4-8 record of a season ago.

Why the Clemson Tigers can cover the spread

Clemson began what it hopes is another run to the College Football Playoff with a 19-13 victory at Auburn last Saturday. The Tigers appeared sluggish out of the gate, but a pair of long drives late in the second quarter produced a 10-3 halftime lead. Clemson stretched that to 19-6 midway through the fourth quarter, allowed Auburn to pull within one score and then survived a couple of Hail Mary attempts in the final seconds for the win.

The Tigers outgained Auburn 399-262. Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback Deshaun Watson threw for 248 yards and a touchdown, running back Wayne Gallman ran 30 times for 123 yards, and wide receiver Mike Williams, who missed almost all of last season with a neck injury, caught nine balls for 174 yards.

For the first time in 12 games, stretching back to early last season, the Clemson offense was held below 500 yards last week. And still they came within three minutes and/or two points of covering as a seven-point favorite.

Smart pick

Clemson plays the heavy for this early-season mismatch, but going back to last season, Troy is averaging 39 points per game over its last seven games and is 2-1 ATS in its last three games against Power Five teams. The Tigers should win, but the smart play here appears to be the Trojans.

Betting trends

Clemson is 16-0 straight up in its last 16 games at home.

Clemson is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games in September.

Troy is 0-8 SU in its last eight games against the ACC.

All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.