Olympic Tennis 2016: Breaking Down Rafael Nadal's Chances to Win Gold Medal

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic’s exit at the 2016 Olympics has been the biggest shocker, but No. 5 Rafael Nadal might be the most pleasant surprise. Or maybe, by now, the tennis world should understand that the Spaniard has made a career of impressive comebacks.

While other stars are sidelined for various reasons, Nadal is suddenly a viable gold-medal candidate in men’s singles with victories over Federico Delbonis and Andreas Seppi to get to the final 16.

He’s also won three matches in men's doubles with partner Marc Lopez to advance to the doubles semifinals.

And he’s teaming up with Garbine Muguruza as the No. 3-seeded team for mixed doubles.

It appears that the “King of Clay” packs his cape and resides near a phone booth when the Olympics are staged. He has the chance to add three gold medals to the men’s singles gold he won in China at the 2008 Olympics. If he succeeds, tennis historians will be checking if Nadal really hails from Mount Olympus and grew up throwing lightning bolts in his rare off time from hitting tennis balls.

Olympian Optimism

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In the singles draw, the road has opened like the Red Sea. Nadal demolished his first two opponents, and both results were crucial. The blowouts conserved his energy, boosted his confidence and demonstrated that his wrist is probably healthy. (An injured left wrist caused Nadal to withdraw after the second round of the French Open in May. He had not played a match until the Olympics.)

"Not much pressure for me," Nadal said to the Associated Press, via Fox News Sports. "Two months without competing, I don't expect much."

Besides the growing mystique of Nadal in the Olympics, this is Brazil, where he began winning titles in his epic 2013 comeback as the the No. 1 player.

Still not convinced? These Brazilian hard courts play slow with high bounces, something that favors Nadal's defensive positioning and offensive attack. Give him more time to hit his forehand and he’s a level above.

Furthermore, Nadal has watched other stars get chopped down like a scene from The Odyssey. Stars like Roger Federer, Stan Wawrinka, Milos Raonic and Dominic Thiem never made it to the battlefield. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, David Ferrer and Djokovic have been vanquished.

Perhaps it’s no coincidence that when Djokovic and Federer suffer ailments or early defeats in 2016, Nadal jumps back into the picture—as was the case when he captured Monte Carlo and Barcelona in April.

Odds for Gold

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Nadal’s singles path requires him to defeat Gilles Simon and either Thomaz Bellucci or David Goffin to get to the semifinals. They are all backboards of a sort—crafty control artists or finesse hitters that could stretch Nadal’s stamina. But the Spaniard has a bigger forehand, more physicality and a talent for handling players that rely more on guile than power.

Juan Martin del Potro, who shocked Djokovic in the first round, is mounting his own comeback from wrist surgeries as a dangerous semifinal possibility. Nadal holds the 8-4 head-to-head record, but it’s been three years since they have met, and their careers are vastly different right now. Del Potro’s powerful groundstrokes are a wild card, but Nadal still gets the edge with his consistency, if he remains fresh.

And the gold-medal singles final? Kei Nishikori or Marin Cilic may be favored to edge Nadal if the Spaniard gets worn down or compromised from too much tennis in three different draws.

Andy Murray would be the outright favorite. He’s rested and tuned up, and he has been the stronger player the past two years. They split clay-court matches in Monte Carlo (Nadal the winner) and Madrid (Murray the winner). But Murray won Wimbledon, has his health and only faced one doubles match in the first round. He's going to let brother Jamie take care of Great Britain’s mixed doubles with Johanna Konta.

All told, Nadal might have a one-quarter chance at winning singles gold.

In men’s doubles, Nadal and Lopez face Canada’s seventh-seeded duo of Vasek Pospisil and Daniel Nestor. That semifinal looks to be a coin toss. Likewise for a possible final against a fifth-seeded Romanian team (Horia Tecau and Florin Mergea are both ranked in the top 15 as doubles players). They could also be matched with a pair of power players from America in Jack Sock and Steve Johnson.

Doubles is about another one-quarter shot at gold.

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Somehow the King of Clay will join with the new French Open queen, Muguruza, to fit in mixed doubles. They are seeded No. 3—but of course, seedings haven't mattered much thus far. Still, without Serena Williams in the draw, Nadal and Muguruza could be right up there with solid odds.

Would a one-quarter chance be fair enough?

All draws included, Nadal has a fair probability to come away with one gold medal. Maybe he gets a silver or bronze for good measure, but it won’t be easy.

The bigger picture is brightest of all. While Nadal might be too depleted to sail into Cincinnati and play in next week’s Western & Southern Open, he has to feel that his chances to compete well at the U.S. Open have dramatically improved. To be continued on that.

Meanwhile, medals are up in the air, and Nadal is alive and well, mowing through the plains of Troy.