Wimbledon 2016 Women's Semifinals: Williams vs. Vesnina Preview, Predictions
And then there were four at Wimbledon 2016.
The last two weeks whittled a field that once stood 128 deep down to its final combatants. With the finish line in sight, pressure is about to amplify around the women left battling for the top prize in tennis.
A spot in the championship match is at stake when Serena Williams and Elena Vesnina square off in a semifinal not many expected to see at the beginning of the tournament. Williams’ appearance here is hardly a shock, but the 50th-ranked Vesnina is enjoying the breakout run of her career.
Can she keep that momentum going against the hard-charging world No. 1?
To prepare you for their meeting, here’s a look at how they reached this point and the history between them, as well as predictions for what to expect.
Vesnina is on a roll, but she’ll have to concoct a perfect performance to knock off the six-time champion.
Williams at Wimbledon 2016
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Early into her Wimbledon campaign, Williams found herself on the ropes.
After blitzing Amra Sadikovic in the opening round, Williams ran into compatriot and 65th-ranked Christina McHale. What looked to be a cinch on paper proved anything but as McHale grabbed the first set in a tiebreak and led by a break in the third.
Furious, Williams smashed her racket repeatedly at one point as the emotions of the match overwhelmed her. Not a banner day for the reigning champion. But when McHale broke for a 2-0 lead in that final set, it triggered the fighting spirit we're accustomed to seeing from Williams. Raising her level, she stormed back for a 6-7 (7), 6-2, 6-4 victory.
That close call was like a loud alarm that woke her from a slumber.
"The McHale match really helped me," Sportingnews.com's Peter Hanson quoted her as saying. "I felt like losing that first set so tight and her playing better than she's ever played in her life really helped me to realize that I can play better and I can lift my game to compete with people."
Her last three matches against Annika Beck, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova have all been routs. Instead of strawberries and cream, she served bagels to Beck (6-3, 6-0) and Kuznetsova (7-5, 6-0) in two dominant performances.
After winning a staggering 90 percent of her first serves in that quarterfinal beatdown of Pavlyuchenkova, she's capitalizing on ultra-aggressive play—her calling card—to reach an eighth consecutive Grand Slam semifinal.
Vesnina at Wimbledon 2016
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After landing in a cushy part of the draw, doubles specialist Vesnina is through to the semifinal stage for the first time in singles.
She'd only advanced so far as the fourth round once (Wimbledon 2009) before at a Grand Slam event. Yes, this is uncharted territory for the 29-year-old Russian.
The exits of Agniezksa Radwanska, Belinda Bencic and Petra Kvitova in her section opened the door for Vesnina, and she's waltzed through, dropping only one set thus far.
Convincing wins over Tamira Paszek, Andrea Petkovic and Julia Boserup propelled her into the fourth round, where she faced her doubles partner and close friend Ekaterina Makarova. By far her toughest match to this point, Vesnina came back after losing the first set and clinched a gutty 5-7, 6-1, 9-7 win.
That battle lasted nearly three hours, but Vesnina had plenty left in the tank for an easy 6-2, 6-2 win over No. 19 seed Dominika Cibulkova in the quarterfinals.
Between singles, doubles and mixed doubles, the veteran is putting in plenty of work at these championships. All that time on the court hasn't hindered her yet, though she'll need every ounce of energy to survive the Williams barrage.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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This series is one-way traffic in Williams’ direction.
Leading 4-0 in their head-to-head matches, the world No. 1 has swept by Vesnina without dropping a set in each of their previous matches. Their closest encounter came in Charleston over four years ago. Williams won 6-3, 6-4.
They haven’t played one another since Beijing in 2013, and the two only have one prior meeting at the Grand Slam level (2008 U.S. Open).
In the eight sets they’ve contested, only twice did Vesnina win more than three games.
To present a stiffer challenge and stop another rout from happening, she’ll have to raise her game and pray for a miracle.
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Biggest X-Factors?
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We know what to expect from Williams, who's 27-4 in major semifinals.
The question is how Vesnina handles the added scrutiny of her first appearance at this stage.
A two-time champion and six-time finalist at Grand Slams in doubles, Vesnina is staring down a different kind of challenge: arguably the greatest singles player ever on her favorite court.
Nerves are likely going to be a factor. But fatigue could also weigh on her.
Vesnina is still alive in both the doubles and mixed doubles draws, with two matches on her schedule before she even takes the court against a Williams who'll be well-rested.
Long, physical contests could drain Vesnina's energy and leave her vulnerable.
Williams Will Win If...
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It's the same old song and dance for Williams: play aggressively and be rewarded.
Few opponents can contend with her when she's firing on all cylinders, which is exactly what she's been doing the last few rounds.
Big serving is key to her success, and opponents broke Williams only six times through the first five rounds. In the quarterfinals, she didn't face a single break point. As the tournament's progressed, her serve has looked deadlier by the match.
Vesnina will have her hands full trying to get returns in play. Engaging Williams in long rallies won't be easy either, as the top seed will look to use her baseline prowess to keep the Russian on her heels.
Another tactic Williams can use to race past Vesnina? Coming to the net, something she's shown a willingness to do over this fortnight. Against Pavlyuchenkova, she won 14 of 19 points up there. That percentage is a great formula for success in any match.
“I know her game really, really well,” Williams told the New York Times' Ben Rothenberg about Vesnina. “It’s good to play someone’s game that you know.”
How's that for confidence?
Vesnina Will Win If...
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Swing for the fences and hope for the best.
That's the only chance Vesnina has to pull off the upset. On this surface, there's no other way to win than marching full-speed ahead.
"I have to go on to the court with all my heart and take my chances," she told Steven Griffiths of Yahoo Sports (h/t AFP).
Vesnina and her feisty, offensive-minded game overwhelmed her opponents to this point. In each of her victories, she's won the battle on the stat sheet, going for her shots but playing clean tennis overall.
Outslugging Williams may not be a realistic option, but if she stands her ground and stays equally aggressive, Vesnina can make this a competitive one.
A strong server, Vesnina's won more than 50 percent of her second serve points in every match since the first round. Keeping that number high is a must against a powerful returner like Williams.
Prediction
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Vesnina’s magical run at Wimbledon 2016 is one she’ll remember for the rest of her life.
But there’ll be no fairytale finish.
Her stay will end in the semifinals with a straight-sets loss to Williams—she simply won’t be able to handle the firepower coming from the American’s side of the net.
For Williams, this match is just another step toward her mission of winning Grand Slam singles title No. 22. Motivated by the heartbreak she’s experienced recently in major tournaments, Williams won’t be denied her shot at redemption.
All statistics are courtesy of WTATennis.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report.
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