Free NFL Picks: Week Four

I think she's looking for my weekly winners so let's get to it. And is that a FUPA I see next to her?

At any rate.

This is the week where I honestly believe the line maker is looking at the public perception and not at the game itself.

Looking at the card this week I see some lines that are based on public opinion and not on the game itself. With this in mind I would suggest you fade the public as much as possible this week.

Unfortunately for me I like to get my picks out there early for everyone to digest and think about so I don’t have the luxury of figuring out the public opinion.

Last week I laid an egg with Tennessee and Buffalo, but I looked like I could do no wrong after picking Detroit to win outright and an easy cover from the Chargers and Giants.

So what did the up and down week deliver?

Out of three weeks in the NFL I registered winning week No. 3 in a row with a 4-3 record. My overall record bumps up to 13-8 and my winning percentage is still above 60 percent.

Enough of the rambling, it’s time for the picks. My selection is the team mentioned first followed by an enlightening comment to make you place the bet.

New England (-2.5) vs. Baltimore

Everyone, and I mean everyone, loves Baltimore this season. But who have the beaten? They beat Kansas City (0-3) and Cleveland (0-3) and got torched by Philip Rivers while they barely held on to beat San Diego.

I know everyone is going to say, "Well who did New England beat?" And then those same knuckleheads will point out other picks and say the same thing.

I'm just pointing this out because too many people are in love with Baltimore right now and to me that haven’t proven enough to warrant taking them on the road in New England.

New England 32 - Baltimore 24

New Orleans (-7) vs. N.Y. Jets

The Jets won't make the playoffs. Write it down now and call me a visionary later.

New Orleans 26 - N.Y. Jets 16

Detroit (+10) @ Chicago

All of America thinks the Lions can't win twice in a row.

Well why not?

When you trot out slop like Jay Cutler anyone and I mean anyone can beat the Bears.

Don't forget that the Lions almost won there last year.

Detroit 17 - Chicago 16

Washington (-7) vs. Tampa Bay

Convince yourself that Washington stinks. Stop right there and begin to tell yourself that Tampa Bay is the worst team in the NFL.

How bad are the Bucs?

They will challenge the Lions 0-16 performance from a year ago. Their best and only chance to win comes at home against Carolina on Oct. 18. I say they lose that game.

I hope I keep getting the Bucs as less than double-digit dogs all year.

Washington 23 - Tampa Bay 6

Green Bay (+3.5) @ Minnesota

Thank God Brett Favre lives in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Now he has plenty of water to walk on after his miracle win last week.

I'm sure every Minnesota fan has now fully embraced the legend that is Brett Favre.

And I'm sure everyone in the country thinks Brett is going to tune up his former team.

Well guess what?

Favre only plays on offense.

I know, I know. You can thank me for the obvious statement of the century. But hear me out.

Green Bay wants revenge and they will get on both sides of the ball.

That defense wants to light up Favre like a Christmas tree and I'm sure Rodgers would love to do the same to the Vikings defense.

Don't forget about the other team's motivation as well in this game.

Green Bay 28 - Minnesota 13

N.Y. Giants (-9) @ Kansas City

The Chiefs stink and couldn't cover in Kansas City, the Meadowlands, Japan, my backyard, your backyard or anywhere else they would want to play.

N.Y. Giants 36 - Kansas City 4

Denver (+3) vs. Dallas

Unless Jake Delhomme is traded to the Broncos and starts I don't think Dallas wins the game let alone covers.

Delhomme hand wrapped that game for the Cowboys last week.

The frauds of Texas will go down and the Broncos will go to 4-0.

Denver 23- Dallas 14