Congratulations are in order for the two top seeds in the NBA's Eastern Conference.
The only thing separating the Cavs from the championship round is a Raptors team that should be thrilled to be there. Sunday's contest might have cemented this matchup, but why even play the games, right?
Toronto is physically worn down after consecutive seven-game series and losing its starting center, Jonas Valanciunas, along the way. Meanwhile, Cleveland is remarkably fresh, with back-to-back sweeps to its credit and an empty injury report to its name.
The Cavs' Big Three of James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love have never played better together, and the team's perimeter collection is suddenly a record-setting group, according to SAP Sports (via the NBA). James hasn't missed the NBA Finals since 2010.
Meanwhile, Raptors All-Stars Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan haven't carried over their regular-season shooting success. They're still in search of a reliable third scorer since Valanciunas went down.
Is a Raptors team that needed all seven games to dispatch the retooling Indiana Pacers and injury-riddled Heat really the club capable of snapping that streak?
Probably not! But let's give this series a chance to breathe before declaring it dead.
The Case for the Raptors
If the Raptors can somehow bottle up what they found in Sunday's Game 7—the superstar version of Lowry, the aggressive DeRozan, the spacing around the stars, the turbo-charged Bismack Biyombo—and haul it to the next round, they could at least cause some uncomfortable moments in Cleveland.
This stage shouldn't be an issue for Toronto. Yes, the Raptors entered the playoffs with the yips after back-to-back first-round exits the previous two years. Their opening series were rarely pretty, but they showed this core can survive and advance.
"Going through the Indiana series helped them tremendously as far as getting through [the nerves]," Raptors coach Dwane Casey said prior to Game 7, per CBS Sports' James Herbert. "Now, it's about just playing basketball, getting it done on the court."
Focus solely on basketball, and one thing becomes instantly clear—the Raptors are the second-best team on this side of the bracket. Among East squads, only Cleveland topped Toronto in wins (57 to 56) and net efficiency rating (plus-5.8 to plus-4.3).
In three head-to-head matchups, the Raptors actually twice emerged victorious.
|Eastern Conference Finals: Tale of the Tape|
|Category||Toronto Raptors||Cleveland Cavaliers|
|Points Per Game||100.7||106.0|
|Rebounds Per Game||33.3||40.3|
What do those numbers mean for this series? Maybe nothing. Two of the three games happened before the Cavs switched coaches from David Blatt to Tyronn Lue, and the most recent one was played Feb. 26.
But there are a couple of stats that could carry some importance.
Like the fact Toronto's top stopper, DeMarre Carroll, only played in one of those three contests. And it was by far James' worst shooting performance of their season season series—37.5 percent in that game, 55.2 percent in the others. James also struggled with Carroll's defense during last year's Eastern Conference Finals (against the Atlanta Hawks, Carroll's former team), shooting 43.8 percent for the series, five full percentage points below his regular-season average.
"You try to be that gnat on that summer day, when you're eating that barbecue, you know what I'm talking about," Carroll said after their regular-season matchup, per Mike Ganter of the Toronto Sun. "And it's in your face, and you can't get it out. That's all I was trying to be, man."
Lowry is another potential boon to the Raptors' upset hopes. He had his way with the Cavs defense this season—during each of the three meetings, he went for at least 23 points on 53-plus percent shooting. Irving missed one of those contests, but couldn't match Lowry's output in quantity or quality.
ESPN Stats & Info @ESPNStatsInfo
Kyle Lowry had a PER of 46.2 against the Cavaliers this season, the highest rating against Cleveland (min. 10 minutes per game)2016-5-15 23:04:59
"That's what All-Stars do," James said after Lowry's career-high 43-point performance in Toronto's 99-97 win over Cleveland on Feb. 26, per Sportsnet's Michael Grange.
Raptors' Missing Piece Kills Them
Those are potential issues for the Cavs at both ends of the court. But Toronto's biggest wild card could be the one not currently in its hand: Valanciunas.
The 7-footer had been playing the best basketball of his career before suffering this ankle injury. He played two-and-a-half games last series and still averaged 18.3 points on 64.9 percent shooting and 12.7 rebounds.
His interior offense could have been a problem for a smaller Cleveland defense that now gives the bulk of its interior minutes to Love, Tristan Thompson and Channing Frye. A strong scoring game from Valanciunas might test Lue's commitment to this new rotation, but it's hard to tell when—or even if—Valanciunas will be healthy enough to get back on the court.
Casey couldn't give an update on Valanciunas' status after Sunday's win, per Ryan Wolstat of the Toronto Sun:
Ryan Wolstat @WolstatSun
Casey isn't sure about when Valanciunas can return. Offers a "we'll see." Same on whether he can be effective with Cleveland thriving small.2016-5-15 22:38:03
The Raptors have a few glimmers of hope, but they're obviously fighting an uphill battle here.
Cleveland will be the consensus pick for a reason. It had a better regular season and a far more impressive sprint through the first two rounds.
But the Raptors are optimistic, and there are some basketball reasons for why they aren't crazy to feel that way. Not nearly enough of them to sway public opinion, of course, but enough to spot the source of their belief.
"We're not done yet," Casey said during his postgame press conference. "I know what it's like to win a championship. Not saying we can do that, but I think this group is hungry. And never say never."