Roger Federer's Withdrawal Begins the Winners and Losers at Miami Masters 2016
The 2016 Miami Masters rolls on with Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams, but it’s already suffered unusual exits by Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. The tournament’s humidity and deep fields of competitors sets up a great second week for the last Masters 1000 title until late July.
We check in on the favorite players and examine the progress of tennis’ young ATP prospects. Are any of them ready to be an impact player or is the media restless to anoint a new star?
On the women’s tour, we identify the three most consistent stars who always seem to be contending deep in important tournaments.
We wonder if Dominic Thiem is ready to take on Novak Djokovic or if Garbine Muguruza can right the ship against streaking Victoria Azarenka. This week’s "Winners and Losers" sets up a terrific week for tennis fans.
Loser: Roger Federer's Brief Comeback
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After a two-month absence, at least Roger Federer’s return to tennis was not derailed by ill effects from a torn meniscus. However, the Swiss maestro has to feel disappointed that he flew across the Atlantic, geared up to return in a tournament that has often been a struggle and then withdrew with a stomach illness.
The disappointment was no doubt crushing for tennis fans in the Miami area who flocked in to get a glimpse of the superstar. Imagine holding a ticket to see the legendary Swiss maestro, only to get Horacio Zeballos. That’s like finding out that your pass into Willy Wonka’s factory is actually a tour of the local grocery store.
The tennis fans in Miami might feel anxious about losing the Miami Masters in the future, but losing Federer for the third time in four years is an immediate disappointment.
However, it’s more likely that he keeps his date with Monte Carlo and then picks up another extra tournament or two before the French Open. America loses Federer in March, but Europe probably gains more of him in April.
Federer has always been appreciative of fan support, but as he continues on to the second half of his 30s, his appearances could be more sporadic wherever he is slated to play. All the more reason for fans to tune in and watch the mighty Swiss whenever possible. Even the great one will no longer be around one day.
Winner: Andy Murray
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There he was bathing in the humidity while playing tennis. Andy Murray looked far from comfortable in his overly tight, black shirt that was spraying beads of sweat with every forehand. But the Scottish hero is never more at home than when he can add an angry edge.
He groused about the women’s tennis ball that got mixed into the sixth game of the second set in his opening match against Denis Istomin. Just another fiery moment on his way to posting the straight-sets victory.
Looming next is an interesting encounter with Grigor Dimitrov who ousted Murray at Wimbledon 2014. Although he’s still trying to play his way back to his best form, Murray is familiar with Miami’s conditions and courts, and he knows it’s time to win this title if he wishes to carve out an excellent spring and flex his muscles during the clay-court season.
It’s good to see that Murray is chippy and invested in competing, trying to stay ahead of absent Roger Federer, even if he has a lot to prove in the long chase after world No. 1 Novak Djokovic.
Loser: Rafael Nadal's Battle Against the Heat
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For the first time in six years, Rafael Nadal retired from a match, trailing 3-0 in the third set.
First, give credit to 23-year-old Damir Dzumhur who outlasted Miami’s muggy heat and improved his career ATP record to 24-27. He’s quick and athletic, even if undersized, but it goes to show the depth on the men’s tour. There are scores of talented players who can take out any of the stars if something isn’t firing right for them.
A couple of things to consider about Nadal’s losing battle in the sluggish heat. Nadal, a player who built his reputation for playing in hot weather, albeit usually drier air, was a player who seemed to get stronger during a grueling clay-court match. It was as if he was soaking in energy from the sun.
There’s no question that his physical skills are no longer fueled by his former youthfulness.
As Nadal turns 30 in early June, it’s fair to wonder if he will retire from the ATP tour before Federer. Is he willing to grind away as it becomes more difficult to recover and win? It doesn’t seem possible that he will be playing at age 34, no matter how fit and strong he is.
It’s more likely that we see Federer still playing at age 39, and like Jimmy Connors in 1991, the Swiss could certainly have more special moments as a contender.
As noted with Federer, be sure to savor those remaining matches that Nadal plays. There will be a few more highlights, but there will be more struggles to remind us of how physical and demanding this sport has become.
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Winners: WTA's 'Big 3'
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With many of the WTA stars having their ups and downs with injuries and inconsistent play, it’s nice for fans to see a few big names remain consistent. For now, the "Big Three" of women’s tennis is Serena Williams, Victoria Azarenka and Agnieszka Radwanska.
Serena is almost always the favorite to win anywhere given her all-time legacy, firepower and mental toughness. Azarenka might be back to her championship self after winning Indian Wells, and Radwanska’s consistency in getting to the semifinals or better has her in the hunt, even though she has not proven that she can win a major.
Azarenka’s next opponent, Garbine Muguruza, is a talented player with future star potential, but she has dropped off in recent months. Angelique Kerber won the Australian Open, but she has not followed this up as a strong No. 2 player.
Simona Halep? Her offensive clout has been lacking and she’s struggled to recover her form.
Belinda Bencic is too green, and Petra Kvitova maddeningly inconsistent.
As the Miami Masters continues on, it’s really mostly about Serena, Vika and Aga. We’ll see who else can challenge.
Loser: Stan Wawrinka
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Well, so much for Stan Wawrinka building on his rankings points. The world No. 4 lost his opening match 6-4, 6-3 to Andrey Kuznetsov. Coupling that with his fourth-round exit at Indian Wells, and the U.S. spring masters duo has been a bust.
Maybe it's time for him to wear something other than garish orange clothing.
The Swiss had a dismal spring in 2015, and he had a chance to pad his ranking before 2,000 points comes off the board as the French Open begins. Unless he can dominate a couple of tournaments like Monte Carlo or Madrid, anything less than defending his French Open title will cause him to drop.
Wawrinka is probably glad to get on a plane, get back to Europe and start sliding into red clay. The time for him to peak is now, where he can use the slower surfaces and higher bounce to get better time for his powerful groundstrokes.
Winner: WTA Stars Advancing Strong
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It’s been a much better start for the top women’s players at Miami. With the past couple months exposing injuries and inconsistencies with many of the WTA’s top players, maybe things are settling down.
Seven of the eight women to advance to the fourth round in the top half of the bracket are seeded players including superstars Serena Williams, Simona Halep and Agnieszka Radwanska. In the bottom of the bracket, Angelique Kerber, Victoria Azarenka, Madison Keys and Garbine Muguruza are playing on.
Azarenka vs. Muguruza sets up as a blockbuster fourth-round match, but the week promises more star clashes and a well-deserved title for one big winner.
Loser: 'Next Generation' Media Campaign
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ATP World Tour continues to hype the young, promising teenagers as "Next Generation" stars, but at this point they are far from being consistent, let alone champions. These days media hype and stories are often created before consistent results, so it’s really not that surprising that most of them were gone by the end of their first match:
- American Taylor Fritz was wobbly against David Ferrer. His backhand was erratic and he was overmatched playing a ground game of cat-and-mouse. After losing the first-set tiebreaker, he was blitzed in the second set.
- Germany’s Alexander Zverev made waves at Indian Wells including a heartbreaking loss to Rafael Nadal, but he didn’t survive Miami’s second round in losing two tiebreakers to Steve Johnson.
- Croatian Borna Coric floundered in his first-round loss to Denis Istomin, denying himself another shot at Andy Murray.
- Great Britain’s Kyle Edmund has a lot of work to do to build on his 5-17 record. His 6-3, 6-3 loss to Novak Djokovic was a mere formality.
- South Korean Hyeon Chung was destroyed 6-1 in the third set of his opening match.
The reasons for frequent losses by young talents are innumerable, but the bottom line is that they are not ready any time soon to be stars. It might be a disservice to label them as "Next Generation," borrowing their possible future successes for more viewer hype.
Hopefully these young players will not read their press clippings but rather make their statements on the tennis courts, one bounce at a time.
Winner: Dominic Thiem vs. Novak Djokovic
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This might be a more interesting match on Europe’s red clay, but we get a preview of up-and-coming Dominic Thiem (ranked No. 14) against No. 1 Novak Djokovic. They meet in the fourth round for only the second time (Djokovic defeated Thiem at the 2014 Shanghai Masters) in their careers.
Thiem was February’s hottest player when most of the stars rest or pace themselves. He’s won four mid-major tournaments on clay since last May and he added a hard-court title in Mexico last month.
There are at least a couple of reasons to watch Thiem take on Djokovic.
First, Thiem has powerful groundstrokes, in many ways reminiscent of Stan Wawrinka who has given Djokovic trouble in big matches the last three years. Will he have time on hard courts to unleash his game, and does he have the stamina and consistency to fight tooth and nail with the world No. 1?
Djokovic has always been fully aware of records and new challengers. He will come in focused for this one, and there’s an even chance he blows the doors off the opening to the match.
This matchup in Miami is important. Will Thiem boost his confidence enough to show that he can be a star on clay-courts next month or will he come away from a beating that leaves him in a daze? There’s a lot of work to do, so we will look at this impending match and result before we brandish hype.
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