Djokovic-Nadal Final Opens Tennis' 2016 Winners and Losers in Asian Pacific
Novak Djokovic sent out his declaration to Rafael Nadal and the ATP tour that 2016 could be another year of his reign. The world No. 1 collected this week's Doha title a year after he did not reach that final. He's at 16 straight finals and 12 championships, and there's no end in sight.
There were stars playing at Brisbane and Chennai to ready themselves for the Australian Open. How did the week turn out for Roger Federer, Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka?
Meanwhile, the WTA was decimated by injuries and cautionary withdrawals, but there were two stars who made statements. Find out who they are and what this means as they build to the women’s draw at Melbourne.
All of this and more in the year’s first tennis edition of “Winners and Losers,” where we offer commentary and outlooks from the week’s highlights.
Winner: Milos Raonic
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A year after losing the Brisbane final to Roger Federer, Milos Raonic turned the tables on the Swiss legend with a close-shave 6-4, 6-4 victory. As expected, both players relied on defending service games, and a few points made the difference. The surprise was that Raonic ended up holding the trophy.
Does this mean Raonic is a legitimate threat to win the Australian Open?
Probably not. Raonic is a dangerous player for any given match, but it's a whole different animal surviving big-point pressures in a best-of-five match in the quarterfinals, semifinals and final, assuming he can even arrive in the second week.
For now, defeating Federer is a great accomplishment and should be recognized for what it is: another step forward with better health, more experience and growing belief. Raonic is going to scare many of the top players at Australia with his massive serve, and perhaps this year, say at Wimbledon, he puts together a dream run.
Losers: Many WTA Stars Fall Victim to Injuries
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It was a rough start to 2016 for many of the WTA’s top stars. While players migrate to Australia for tune-up tournaments to the year’s first major, the list of the walking wounded had more star power than those who survived:
- No. 1 Serena Williams retired after a set in the Hopman Cup with inflammation in her left knee.
- No. 2 Simona Halep withdrew from Brisbane because of inflammation with her left Achilles.
- No. 3 Garbine Muguruza retired after a set and game at Brisbane because of an injured foot.
- No. 4 Maria Sharapova withdrew from Brisbane because left forearm concerns.
- No. 6 Petra Kvitova withdrew from Shenzhen and Sydney because of a stomach illness.
- No. 9 Lucie Safarova will miss the Australian Open because of bacterial infection that has plagued her performances since summer.
There are more than a few red flags here.
Was this in part because some stars participated in December’s IPTL, thereby cutting into necessary off season rest?
Maybe the rigors of “too much too soon” is the natural result to getting back to trying to play as if they can be in peak shape. Australia gets these cases every year.
Perhaps the top stars are being overly cautious so that they can be fully rested and healthy for the ultimate goal of winning the Australian Open. Erring on the side of cautious has become more in vogue in recent years, which is understandable given that the top players are brands with a lot of money and prestige for the huge tournaments like Melbourne.
It makes it tough for the small tournaments who always wonder if the stars will be there at all or if they will steer themselves to a quick exit.
It shouldn't be forgotten that there are still many stars who will survive and compete all week to the fans' delight.
Winner: Stan Wawrinka
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It’s January, which means Stan Wawrinka is gearing up for another run at the Australian Open. The world No. 4 dominated at Chennai, India, capping off his week with a 6-3, 7-5 victory over teenager and hot prospect Borna Coric. It was Wawrinka’s third straight year winning this tournament.
The important thing for Wawrinka is that he finds the groove that has made him the most dangerous player at Melbourne outside of Novak Djokovic’s dominance. He understands how to win majors, and by adding the 2015 French Open title to his 2014 Australian Open title, Wawrinka doesn’t have to doubt his abilities. He should be brimming with confidence.
Is it a stretch to name Wawrinka the real No. 2 seed for Melbourne? However the bracket turns out, Djokovic would love for somebody else to knock him off. Stan the Man’s hammering groundstrokes have been the occasional kryptonite to Djokovic’s near-invincibility.
Loser: ASB Classic in New Zealand
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New Zealand’s ASB Classic left a collective gasp of disappointment in the first round when the top two seeds Venus Williams and Ana Ivanovic were defeated. The legendary American and popular Serb are major attractions, so it really fell upon Caroline Wozniacki to carry the torch.
Wozniacki did get three wins, but she fell to inspired Sloane Stephens who completed a terrific week, winning her second career tournament trophy.
Looks like the fine folks in New Zealand will have to be content with tuning into their big neighbor’s Australian Open. Barring that, they could watch Peter Jackson’s Lord of the Rings trilogy to view many of New Zealand's beautiful scenic sites. It's certainly more epic than the tennis they got at the ASB Classic.
Winner: Victoria Azarenka
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Victoria Azarenka is an easy choice to be the 2016 comeback player of the year, and she got her year off to a bang by ripping through her draw for an easy title at Brisbane. The unseeded star is hoping for a comeback from injuries and lackluster play in 2014-15.
At Brisbane, Azarenka outscored her opponents by sweeping all 10 sets with the following scores: 6-2, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2, 6-1, 6-2, 6-0, 6-3, 6-3, 6-1. That’s 60-17.
It’s her first title since 2013, which might signal the former No. 1 is ready to go after her third Australian Open title (2012-13).
Besides her love for playing in Australia, Azarenka looks slimmer and quicker. She waltzed through an easy draw for the most part, but she did crush world No. 10 Angelique Kerber in the final.
One thing’s for sure, none of the top-ranked stars want to see Vika in an early round at Melbourne, and if she is “back” she is one of the favorites.
Loser: Andy Murray
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The Hopman Cup is more of an exhibition, at best a warm-up team event to get the juices flowing for Melbourne. So maybe it was not so bad that Andy Murray lost to young Nick Kyrgios for the first time after four ATP tournament losses.
Murray has had a nagging right thigh injury, but insists that it is not much of a problem, according to his comments for the Australian Associated Press (via the Guardian): “It was just the same thing as the other day. I’m still moving fine around the court, it’s just a little bit sore. I’ll be fine. No problem.”
Besides his struggles with trying to defeat Djokovic and Federer in major matches, Murray carried a heavy load of extra matches with his Davis Cup play for Team Britain in 2015. Will he be fresh to play with his usual scrapping energy?
In addition, Murray's loss helped embolden Kyrgios' belief, per the Australian Associated Press, also via the Guardian:
"I actually did promise a couple of my friends that next time I played Andy, I was going to beat him. He’s in the prime of his career. He’s been playing some great tennis. Every time I’ve played him I haven’t played bad.
He’s just a great player and today I knew what my game plan was going to be and how he was going to play.
"
Not exactly a humble statement from Kyrgios, and certainly Murray and the other top players would rather not see the Australian turn into a monster player on tour through his recent strong efforts at the IPTL and the Hopman Cup.
Winner: Agnieszka Radwanska
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The hottest WTA player might be Agnieszka Radwanska. While other stars are hobbled or searching for their forms, the Polish star has been picking up more momentum since her resurgent run to the Wimbledon semifinal.
This week’s title at Shenzhen is her fourth championship since the U.S. Open, including the WTA year-end final at Singapore. She has won 22 of 26 matches by commanding her shots and finding weaknesses in her opponents.
Best of all, Radwanska will move up to No. 4 in the world, meaning that she can be seeded in a quarter away from the other top three players. Or maybe Serena Williams, Simona Halep and Garbine Muguruza are happy to avoid Radwanska until at least the semifinals.
A Radwanska championship run in Melbourne would be great for tennis. Her game is a pleasure to watch with her wizardry of shots. No doubt tennis clubs around the world love players with a finesse, smart approach to winning.
Loser: Rafael Nadal
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What else can Rafael Nadal do to overcome Novak Djokovic? The Spanish superstar has built up his confidence and game the last few months, and after a brief offseason, he expressed his progress in returning to the top of tennis, according to comments last week, per Richard Osborn of the ATP World Tour:
"The expectations are the normal ones, positive ones, because I feel that I finished the past season playing well and I feel that I am playing well again. It’s obvious that I feel more confident this year."
Then he got his first real test of 2016 in the Doha final against his (former?) rival, and it was a beatdown that probably would have destroyed the psyche of just about any other player. What do you do when you are a 14-time major champion who gets humiliated 6-1, 6-2 in a match that really wasn’t even that close?
Say this about Nadal. He faced the music and pointed out the mountain ahead of him and impacting his Australian Open chances, according to the ATP World Tour:
"He played so good. Accept it and congratulate him. Nothing left to say. The only thing is the opponent is better than me today. And here especially. Let's see in Australia and let's see later during the whole season. I'm going to fight and I feel ready to fight. I feel ready and excited about this fight and I hope to be closer.
"
There have been many times in the past Djokovic has rattled off dominant sets against Nadal, but the gap was never wider than watching Nadal play defense from several meters behind the baseline, while Djokovic stepped in and launched superior offense in every conceivable way. It was a struggle for Nadal to pick up points let alone hold his three games.
Djokovic has now won nine of 10 matches against Nadal beginning with Beijing late in 2013.
More on Nadal’s Australian Open chances with our impending appraisal of the top-10-ranked players later this week.
Winner: Novak Djokovic
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It would seem like another instance of hyperbole for tennis fans to take Djokovic’s latest title and demolition of Rafael Nadal in order to explain how unstoppable the Serbian has become.
But that’s what Nadal did, after his crushing defeat in the Doha final. He credited Djokovic by calling the champion’s display “perfect,” according to the ATP World Tour:
"I played against a player who did everything perfectly. I don't know anybody who's ever played tennis like this. Since I know this sport I've never seen somebody playing at this level. So I just congratulate him and that's it."
With all of the other accolades Djokovic has received lately, now we have Nadal’s latest assessment, which more than implies that Djokovic is at a level that Nadal and Federer never achieved.
Legendary players all have their defining streaks or tennis zones. Djokovic himself stated in the same article that the ball looked like “a watermelon.” These are the kinds of details that permeate through the years to come when stories and achievements add more testimony to the superstar's legacy.
At some point, Djokovic’s level will drop, but the only question for now is how long will it continue.
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