Camellia Bowl Betting: Ohio vs. Appalachian State Odds, Analysis and Pick

The Ohio Bobcats struggled through the middle of this season but ended with a 3-0 run both straight up and against the spread. They're also 3-1 ATS this season as underdogs. They'll be underdogs again when they take on the Appalachian State Mountaineers in the Camellia Bowl.

Camellia Bowl point spread: The Mountaineers opened as 9.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 41.2-26.4 Mountaineers

Why the Bobcats can cover the spread

Ohio opened this season 5-1, with its only loss coming on a late score at Minnesota. The Bobcats followed that up with two wins, then lost three games in a row, falling out of contention in the MAC East. But they recovered to win their last three games in a row, including a season-ending 26-21 upset of MAC West champion Northern Illinois on the road. They finished at 8-4 both SU and ATS, 5-3 in MAC play.

Ohio outrushed the Huskies, 230-73, and won time of possession, 35:37-24:23. The Bobcats could have won that game by more, but they were forced to kick three short field goals.

Ohio has now outrushed each of its last four opponents by an average of 170 yards per game. And that's usually a good way to win a game and cover a spread.

Why the Mountaineers can cover the spread

The Mountaineers started 7-1 this season, with their only loss coming in an away game against eventual College Football Playoff qualifier Clemson. Appalachian State then fell at home to Arkansas State, a defeat that ultimately cost them the the Sun Belt title.

But the Mountaineers then won their last three games, including a 34-27 decision at South Alabama in the season finale, to finish at 10-2 overall, 7-1 in conference play. As a result, ASU is playing in its first-ever bowl game in just its second season of FBS ball.

The Mountaineers outgained and outrushed the South Alabama Jaguars and have now outgained and outrushed six of their last eight opponents. And for the season, Appalachian State is outrushing foes by a an average of 136 yards per game.

Smart pick

The Mountaineers own the advantage on offense and defense, and they should be all sorts of jacked up for their first-ever bowl. Give the points with Appalachian State.

Betting trends

Appalachian State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games.

The total has gone over in four of Appalachian State's last five games.

Ohio is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five games against the Sun Belt.

Ohio is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games after winning as an underdog.

All point-spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds-tracker app.