Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The unbeaten Carolina Panthers (12-0) will host the skidding Atlanta Falcons (6-6) on Sunday in the first of two meetings over a three-week period. The Panthers have won six straight games versus NFC South opponents, and they are 14-3 straight up in their last 17 dating back to 2012 with an 11-6 mark against the spread during that stretch.

Point spread: The Panthers opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 35.0-11.2 Panthers

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

It is hard to make an argument to back the Falcons in this spot considering how poorly they have played, dropping six of seven games following a 5-0 start. But they did win 19-17 at Carolina last year before losing to the Panthers 34-3 in Week 17.

Atlanta remains a talented team with one of the best offenses in the division, led by wide receiver Julio Jones, who has more yards than any other player at his position. Running back Devonta Freeman also returned from a concussion last week in a 23-19 road loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, although he was held to just 47 yards on 14 carries. Freeman and Jones at least give quarterback Matt Ryan a chance here.

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

The Falcons have failed to cover eight straight games, putting Carolina in perfect position to improve to 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS. The Panthers may have gotten a wake-up call last week in a 41-38 road victory against the New Orleans Saints, and they will be playing one of two games left at home, where they have covered three of four.

Carolina quarterback Cam Newton has also emerged as the front-runner to win NFL MVP after throwing five touchdowns at New Orleans, while Tom Brady and the New England Patriots lost their second game in a row. Brady was the previous favorite to win MVP, but the award is now Newton’s to lose as long as the Panthers finish strong.

Smart pick

Atlanta might be the most unlikely candidate to hand the Panthers their first loss of the year, especially on the road. The Falcons will have a much better chance to pull off the upset at home in two weeks when the pressure of an undefeated season weighs on the Panthers even more. Look for Carolina to take care of business with a victory and a cover.

Betting trends

• The visiting team is 1-4 ATS in its last five games in this matchup.
• The Panthers are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games at home in December.
• The Falcons are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.