Texas Longhorns vs. Baylor Bears Betting Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick

Texas owns the all-time rivalry with Baylor by a lopsided 72-26 margin, but the Bears are trying to turn the table on the Longhorns, winning four of the last five meetings outright and covering seven of the last eight. With little on the line other than pride, Baylor and Texas hook up Saturday in Waco.

Point spread: The Bears opened as 20.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 52.6-30.0 Bears

Why the Texas Longhorns can cover the spread

The 'Horns won three of four games heading into November but have lost their last two after falling at home to Texas Tech on Thanksgiving night 48-45. Texas trailed the Red Raiders 24-10 midway through the third quarter, rallied to take a 38-34 lead midway through the fourth, fell back down 48-38, pulled to within three points with two minutes to go but couldn't get the ball back.

On the day, the Longhorns ran the ball for 403 yards, as freshman Chris Warren exploded for 276 yards and four touchdowns, including a 91-yard scoring jaunt that tied the game at 10-10 in the second quarter. Two weeks ago, Texas trailed West Virginia 21-17 late into the third quarter before fading in a 38-20 defeat.

Despite their recent struggles, the Longhorns have outgained four of their last six opponents and outrushed five of their last six foes.

Why the Baylor Bears can cover the spread

Baylor started this season 8-0, but thanks in part to injuries at the quarterback position, it has lost two of its last three games. Three weeks ago, with freshman Jarrett Stidham making his second career start, the Bears fell at home to Oklahoma 44-34. Two weeks ago, Baylor upset previously unbeaten Oklahoma State in Stillwater 45-35 but lost Stidham to an ankle injury.

Last week, with sophomore quarterback Chris Johnson making his first-ever start, the Bears lost in overtime at TCU 28-21 in a driving rain in Fort Worth.

On the day, Baylor outgained the Horned Frogs 335-302 and outrushed them 273-154 but committed five turnovers, one of which was returned for a key TCU touchdown early in the second quarter.

With an extra week of practice and better throwing conditions, perhaps Johnson can improve upon his 7-for-24 passing performance of last week.

Smart pick

Baylor is playing with its third-string quarterback and must be at least slightly deflated after being eliminated from contention in the Big 12. Also, playing at home means the spread is probably inflated by half a touchdown or so. Take Texas plus the points.

Betting trends

• Texas is 13-4 straight up in its last 17 games against Baylor.
• Texas is 0-5 against the spread in its last five games against Baylor.
• Baylor is 6-0 SU and ATS in its last six games in December.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.