NASCAR at Homestead 2015: Complete Preview, Prediction for the Ford EcoBoost 400

After 35 races, the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup season comes to an end in Sunday’s championship-deciding Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Four drivers will battle it out: retiring four-time champion Jeff Gordon (who has not won a championship since 2001), defending champ Kevin Harvick and two potential first-time champs, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr.

There will be a lot of sentiment and emotion for Gordon, who's competing in the last race of his legendary career. At the same time, there will be a lot of determination by Harvick to win his second title in a row.

Busch hopes to put a spectacular end on a season that started in devastating fashion with a horrible wreck at Daytona International Speedway that resulted in injuries that caused him to miss 11 races. Busch came back to win four races in short order and received a special exemption from NASCAR to become Chase-eligible.

And then there’s this year’s Cinderella driver, Truex. Much like Ryan Newman was last year’s Cinderella, Truex has the potential to become NASCAR’s little engine that could, the first driver in the modern era to win a championship for a one-car team (as in Furniture Row Racing).

Here’s how the season finale shapes up:

By the Numbers: Homestead-Miami Speedway

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Ford EcoBoost 400

Place: Homestead-Miami Speedway

Date: Sunday, Nov. 22

Time: 3 p.m. (ET)

TV: NBC, 2 p.m. (ET)

Radio: Motor Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

Distance: 267 laps, 400.5 miles

Defending winner: Kevin Harvick is the defending winner of this race. His win in last year’s race also sealed up Harvick’s first career Sprint Cup championship.

Youngest winner: Kurt Busch on Nov. 17, 2002 (24 years, 3 months, 13 days).

Oldest winner: Bill Elliott on Nov. 11, 2001 (46 years, 1 months, 3 days).

Youngest pole winner: Joey Logano on Nov. 18, 2012 (22 years, 5 months, 25 days).

Oldest pole winner: Bill Elliott on Nov. 11, 2001 (46 years, 1 months, 3 days).

Most wins: all-time and active—Greg Biffle and Tony Stewart (3 each).

Most poles: all-time and active—Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson and Kasey Kahne (2 each).

Most top-fives: all-time and active—Jeff Gordon (7).

Most top-10s: all-time and active—Jeff Gordon and Kevin Harvick (12 each).

Lead lap finishes: all-time and active—Kevin Harvick (13).

Laps completed: all-time and active—Jeff Gordon (4,205).

Laps led: all-time and active—Carl Edwards (560).

Most race starts at Homestead: all-time and active—Jeff Gordon (16).

Race record: Jeff Gordon (142.245 mph) on Nov. 18, 2012.

Qualifying record: Brad Keselowski (181.238 mph) on Nov. 14, 2014.

Best average start: all-time and active—Kasey Kahne (9.636).

Best average finish: all-time and active—Kevin Harvick (7.571).

TRACK NOTES:

* Total number of races at Homestead: 16

* Total number of different pole winners in Homestead history: 12

* Races won from pole: 2

* Last race won from pole: Kurt Busch on Nov. 17, 2002

* Number of race winners at Homestead: 12

* DNFs (most): all-time and active—Mike Bliss (5 in 7 starts)

* DNFs (least): all-time and active—Jeff Burton (0 in 15 starts)

Statistical information provided by NASCAR Media Relations.

Key Storylines

Ralph Freso/Associated Press

Jeff Gordon’s last race, Part 1

Twenty-three years of Sprint Cup racing—with a record 797 starts—come to an end for Jeff Gordon once the checkered flag falls in Sunday’s race. We all went through this season knowing it was Gordon’s last, but now that it’s here, oh how we wish he might stick around for another year.

Unfortunately, it’s not meant to be. No matter what you have planned for Sunday, make sure to tune in to the NBC broadcast—or at the very least record the race—because this will be history in the making. And don’t expect more than a few tears to be shed.

Jeff Gordon’s last race, Part 2

Gordon has not won a Sprint Cup championship since 2001. That means he’s gone 14 seasons without being No. 1. And what better way to go out than to win the championship in the final race of his career?

While a win would lock the title up for Gordon, all he has to do is finish in front of his three challengers, and the title will be his.

Guess who’s back?—it’s Matt Kenseth

After serving a two-race suspension for pile-driving Joey Logano into the wall at Martinsville Speedway four weeks ago, Matt Kenseth will return to race Sunday. NASCAR has made itself clear to Kenseth that it won’t tolerate any shenanigans and to keep his distance from Logano.

But what happens if Logano wants to mix it up? Let’s hope not because it could potentially take away from what everyone came to see: the crowning of a new champion.    

Can Kevin Harvick do the Homestead two-step?

Harvick is, of course, the defending Sprint Cup champion. Can he pull off a second consecutive title, or will Jeff Gordon be too difficult to overcome? And let’s not forget Kyle Busch or Martin Truex Jr., both very capable of pulling off an upset.

Harvick has had great consistency this season, including 15 finishes of either first or second place. Can he do it one more time?

Can Cinderella do it?

Martin Truex Jr. has lived by a single mantra all season: “Never give up.” It’s propelled him both professionally on the race track as well as served as inspiration as his girlfriend has dealt with with ovarian cancer. Truex has probably the longest odds of any of the four Chase finalists.

Plus, he has no teammates to fall back on (although don’t be surprised if Richard Childress Racing’s three drivers serve as quasi-teammates to help Truex along because of the technical alliance Furniture Row Racing has with RCR).

Drivers to Watch

Butch Dill/Associated Press

Matt Kenseth: Matt’s back, and his hatred of Joey Logano not withstanding, what better way for Kenseth to get back at NASCAR for what he still considers an unfair two-race suspension than to win Sunday’s race?

But I have to wonder, if Kenseth is able to pull that off, would that be quintessential NASCAR still?

Martin Truex Jr.: I know, Truex is one of the four finalists. Why isn’t he among the favorites? That’s not to disrespect what Truex has accomplished this season. He’s been exceptional. But I’m a traditionalist, and it’s hard to see a driver for a one-car organization win the championship.

The last driver for a single-car team to do that was the late Alan Kulwicki in 1992 (ironically, winning the championship in the same race that marked the last race of Richard Petty’s career and the first of Jeff Gordon’s career). While I’d love to see Truex pull off the upset, it’s an uphill climb for him to do that. Still, I wish him the best. I’d like nothing better than to have him prove me wrong.

Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson is in the same boat of sorts as Austin Dillon—namely, still seeking his first breakthrough Sprint Cup win. As his sophomore season in NASCAR’s premier series comes to an end, we thought Larson would have claimed his first Cup checkered flag by now.

He still has one last chance in 2015. He’s shown decent progress on 1.5-mile tracks but has also struggled at times. Which one will it be for him on Sunday?

Joey Logano: It’s Ford Championship Weekend and the Ford EcoBoost 400, but there is not one Ford driver battling it out for the championship. That’s why Joey Logano is a driver to watch, because what better way to show Ford drivers still have it than—if they can’t win the championship—at least win the race?

Plus, it’ll be interesting to see how Logano races Matt Kenseth, back from suspension. Will Logano ignore Kenseth and focus solely on winning? I would hope so.

Brad Keselowski: As Herman’s Hermits (for those of you too young to remember, they were a very popular pop music band in the 1960s) used to sing, “Second verse, same as the first.” And what I said about Logano wanting to win for Ford goes double for Keselowski, his Penske Racing teammate.

For the second consecutive season, Keselowski came up short of making the final round of the Chase. Winning Sunday would at least be some partial consolation, not to mention make all the Ford executives back in Dearborn, Michigan, happy.  

Favorites

Ralph Freso/Associated Press

Jeff Gordon: This is arguably the most important race of Jeff Gordon’s career. There will be no do-overs or second chances or wait until next year. He’s long sought to go out on top as a champion when he retired, and now he has the opportunity to do just that.

Don’t be surprised if he has the best car he’s ever driven for Hendrick Motorsports because a win by Jeff would be a win for the entire organization—and potentially take away some of the sting of Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kasey Kahne not having made it to the final round of the Chase.

Kevin Harvick: You can’t have Jeff Gordon among the favorites and not have Kevin Harvick. The Bakersfield, California, native did everything he needed to do last season to reach the final round and then won the race to win the championship. Can Harvick hold off Gordon?

The only way I see that happening is for Harvick to take the pole, take the early lead in the race and never let go of it over the 267-lap race. He has to stay as far away from—and as far ahead of—Gordon as he possibly can.

Kyle Busch: What the younger Busch brother has done this year has been nothing short of miraculous. To come back from the severe injuries he suffered in February in just 11 weeks and then win four races to qualify for the Chase, Busch’s season has been nothing short of a Hollywood script.

All he needs to do to finish that script is a great ending, and that means a win and a championship. This is the furthest he’s ever gotten in the Chase; it would be a shame to see him not be a contender going into the final lap of the race.

Jimmie Johnson: Just like Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin and the other 12 Chase drivers who were eventually eliminated before reaching the final round, Jimmie Johnson is looking to end 2015 on a high note and use it as momentum heading into next season.

But No. 1, Johnson will likely do everything he can to help Jeff Gordon get the elusive fifth championship. If Johnson and Gordon were to finish 1-2 (or vice versa) in Sunday’s race, that would make everyone happy.

Denny Hamlin: Having won at Homestead in 2013, Denny Hamlin knows the route to Victory Lane in South Florida. In a sense, Hamlin very likely will do what Jimmie Johnson has in mind in Sunday’s race with Jeff Gordon.

In other words, Hamlin will be Kyle Busch’s wing man en route to the latter potentially winning the championship. And if Hamlin can grab a little attention for himself by winning or finishing a close second to his teammate, all the better.

Dark-Horse Pick: Greg Biffle

Ralph Freso/Associated Press

It’s been a rough season for Greg Biffle. The veteran will be putting the wraps on what has been the worst season of his Sprint Cup career. But Biffle has a knack for doing well at Homestead. In 13 career starts there he has three wins, four top-five finishes and five top-10s.

Admittedly, Biffle has struggled recently at Homestead, with finishes of 35th, fifth, 24th and 41st in his last four races there dating back to 2011.

But just like every other Ford driver who failed to make the Chase, doing well is one job on his mind, with the hope to pull out a Ford-powered win in the Ford EcoBoost 400 to wrap up Ford Championship Weekend.

What better way to end a terrible season than to do well to end the year and go into the offseason with some momentum?   

And the Winner Is: Jeff Gordon

Matt Sullivan/Getty Images

This race has all the makings of one of the greatest storybook endings to the kind of illustrious career Jeff Gordon has had in NASCAR racing.

Sure, it’s a sentimental pick this time, but given that this will be Gordon’s last Sprint Cup race and he’ll retire immediately afterward, a little indulgence is called for here.

Granted, of the four Championship Four drivers who will battle it out for the championship, Gordon has the worst stats. But the win at Martinsville four weeks ago built a momentum that has continued to grow for the four-time champ.

When Kevin Harvick won last year’s championship, many observers felt a better storyline could never be written. Well, guess what? If Gordon wins Sunday—as I expect him to do—it will be a storyline that will exceed Harvick’s accomplishment last season.

Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski.