NASCAR at Texas 2015: Complete Preview, Prediction for the AAA Texas 500

It’ll be a new-look NASCAR on Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway.

Well, kind of.

Given the penalties handed down to Matt Kenseth and Danica Patrick for their retaliations against Joey Logano and David Gilliland, respectively, per ESPN.com's Bob Pockrass, NASCAR has done what it has threatened to do several times in the past: If the drivers can’t police themselves, the sanctioning body will.

How will the Kenseth and Patrick sanctions impact the rest of the Chase? It remains to be seen, but my theory is you’re going to see non-Chase drivers giving the eight remaining Chase drivers as much room as they want and need.

There will be no hard racing for position between Chasers and non-Chasers. There will be plenty of drivers moving over to let the Chasers go by.

And there will be no racing back to the start-finish line between Chase drivers and non-Chase drivers who are a lap or more down.

Will fans like this style of racing? It remains to be seen, but I have my doubts. Instead of watching one race, we’ll likely be watching one race and then another race within a race, so to speak.

Some may say it may make the racing too homogenized. Others may say that NASCAR assessing penalties for infractions, as in Kenseth's case, was a long time coming.

It’s a new era in NASCAR. It’s no longer “boys have at it.” Rather, it’s “step out of line and you’ll pay for it.”

Here’s how Sunday shapes up:

By the Numbers: Texas Motor Speedway

Tim Sharp/Associated Press

Jimmie Johnson is the winningest Sprint Cup driver in Texas Motor Speedway with five wins.

AAA Texas 500

Place: Texas Motor Speedway

Date: Sunday, Nov. 8

Time: 2 p.m. (ET)

TV: NBC, 1 p.m. (ET)

Radio: Performance Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

Distance: 334 laps, 501 miles

Defending winner: Jimmie Johnson not only won last fall’s Chase race at Texas, but he also came back to win the spring race there earlier this year. But that’s not all: Johnson has won four of the last six races at the 1.5-mile track and has five wins overall there.

Youngest winner: Joey Logano on April 7, 2014 (23 years, 10 months, 14 days)

Oldest winner: Dale Jarrett on April 1, 2001 (44 years, four months, six days)

Youngest pole winner: Brian Vickers on Nov. 5, 2006 (23 years, zero months, 12 days)

Oldest pole winner: Bill Elliott on April 8, 2002 (46 years, six months, zero days)

Most wins: all time and active—Jimmie Johnson (five)

Most poles: all time and active—Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte, Ryan Newman, Tony Stewart and Martin Truex Jr. (two poles each)

Most top fives: all time and active—Matt Kenseth (13)

Most top 10s: all time and active—Jimmie Johnson (18)

Lead lap finishes: all time and active—Matt Kenseth (22)

Laps completed: all time and active—Jeff Gordon (8,664)

Laps led: all time and active—Jimmie Johnson (1,017)

Most race starts at Texas: all time and active—Jeff Gordon (29)

Race record: Greg Biffle (160.577 mph) on April 14, 2012

Qualifying record: Tony Stewart (200.111 mph) on October 31, 2014

Best average start: all-time—Steve Park (8.000); active—Jimmie Johnson (8.417)

Best average finish: all-time and active—Jimmie Johnson (8.750)

TRACK NOTES:

• Total number of races at Texas: 29
• Total number of different pole winners in Texas history: 21
• Races won from pole: three
• Last race won from pole: Kyle Busch on April 13, 2013
• Number of race winners at Texas: 18
• DNFs (most): all time and active—Joe Nemechek (12)
• DNFs (least): all time and active—Jeff Gordon (zero in 22 starts)

Statistical information provided by NASCAR Media Relations.

Key Storylines

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

What happens now

After Matt Kenseth (suspended two races pending appeal) and Danica Patrick (fined $50,000 and docked 25 driver points) were penalized by NASCAR earlier this week, how will this affect all NASCAR drivers? Even more, how will it affect the Chase for the Sprint Cup? Will drivers refuse to race Chasers hard for fear they too may get penalized for over-aggressive driving?

And what about Joey Logano

After Kenseth dumped him at Martinsville, how does Joey Logano rally back? Or can he? Logano comes into Texas this weekend sitting last in the Sprint Cup standings—38 points out of first place. He’s not quite in a must-win situation, but a win would certainly take care of him making it to the championship round.

Cowboy hat No. 6 for Jimmie Johnson

Jimmie Johnson has been the most dominating driver at Texas since fall 2006. In that 18-race stretch, Johnson has won the last two races there, four of the last six and five overall. He also has finished runner-up five other times. Even though he’s been eliminated from the Chase, it’s hard to bet against Johnson not winning there for a sixth time.

Now that Jeff Gordon has won

With his ticket punched to the final season-ending and championship-deciding race at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Nov. 22, Jeff Gordon is the only Chase driver who can rest easy and relax at both Texas and Phoenix.

There’s absolutely no need for Gordon to risk anything by going for wins in either place. He can literally have relaxing Sunday drives at both places before gearing up for what will not only be the last race of his illustrious career, but also potentially the most important race for him since he won his last championship in 2001.

What happens to Kurt Busch and Brad Keselowski

While Joey Logano is dead last in the Chase standings (38 points out), Brad Keselowski (sixth, minus-34 points) and Kurt Busch (seventh, minus-36 points) also have their work cut out for themselves if they hope to advance to the final round at Homestead.

Both drivers looked like they could win at Martinsville until they were involved in a wreck with Kenseth with less than 75 laps to go. Of the two, I give more of a nod to the elder Busch brother winning. He’s hungry, he just signed a new primary sponsor for next season (Monster Energy) and he also recently received a contract extension.

Drivers to Watch

Steve Sheppard/Associated Press

Tony Stewart

People laughed when I picked Stewart as a driver to watch at Martinsville. Guess who’s having the last laugh? The three-time champ rallied for a 10th-place finish, his third-best finish of the season. Doing so has to instill some confidence into a driver and team that have been lacking it much of this season because of so many poor performances. Plus, Texas is one of Stewart’s favorite tracks. He could definitely surprise again this week—and maybe finish even higher than he did at Martinsville.

Danica Patrick

Yes, I’m picking Danica again, but it's not for the same reasons I’ve done it in the past. Frankly, I think she has a snowball’s chance in hell of winning, let alone finishing in the top 20—maybe not even in the top 30. But I am picking her again this week because she definitely is a driver to watch for how she’ll respond after NASCAR imposed the big fine and points cut for retaliating against David Gilliland at Martinsville.

Honestly, I’m wondering if Gilliland tries to goad Patrick yet again (they have a history of run-ins). After all, he was the one who started the chain of events at Martinsville—and then he got away scot-free.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Even though he was eliminated from the Chase after Talladega, there's still plenty of motivation and incentive for Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the three remaining races. Plus, he has a good history at Texas (sight of his first career Cup win in 2000) and Phoenix (2 wins).

Earnhardt could easily win at either track. And given all the controversy NASCAR has had over the last several weeks—including Earnhardt's elimination from the Chase—it would be nice to see him win another race and give NASCAR another feel-good story, just like what happened last week for Jeff Gordon at Martinsville.

Kyle Larson

Still in pursuit of his first career Sprint Cup win, Larson has flown well under the radar in his sophomore season in NASCAR’s premier series. Unlike his rookie season in 2014, Larson really hasn’t had many highlights from 2015. He still has three races left to earn that elusive first win, and of the three tracks remaining, Texas and Phoenix afford him the best chances to break through and end up in Victory Lane.

Carl Edwards

Texas is one of Edwards’ favorite and more successful tracks, having amassed three wins there thus far in his career. That’s one significant good thing that’s to his advantage. But there’s the fear that if he has a bad race, he will have a very big hole to dig himself out of heading into next week’s penultimate race of the Chase at Phoenix.

I’m not sure how many of you have also noticed this, but Edwards has been so low-key and quiet in this year’s Chase, completely different than when he battled Stewart for the 2011 championship—and ultimately lost on a tiebreaker. He’s letting his consistency do his talking for him, but he has to come out of Texas with at least a top 10 (a top-five would be better) if he hopes to be in a decent position heading into Phoenix.

Favorites

Don Petersen/Associated Press

Joey Logano

Let’s get this out of the way right away. Logano is pretty much in a must-win situation. He has to reach back and use everything he has to reach Victory Lane, much like the way he swept all three races of Round 2 of the Chase. Logano has already won once at Texas in his career, so he knows how to do it. There’d be no better comeback than to go from zero after Martinsville to hero after Texas with a win.

Plus, he would get an automatic berth into the Chase finale at the same time. He can’t afford to hope he can still make the season-ending and championship-deciding race with a strong finish at Phoenix next week. For Logano, the most important race of the season up to this point is this weekend.

Jimmie Johnson

When you’ve won five times at a place, being a favorite in future races just kind of comes with the territory. Johnson has become somewhat of a forgotten man the last few weeks, particularly after being eliminated after the first round of the Chase. There’d be no better way to say, “Hey guys, remember me?” than to win Sunday. Given that he’s won the last two races at Texas and four of the last six, it’s hard to pick against him.

Jeff Gordon

Yes, I know I’m kind of contradicting myself from what I said about Gordon in the "Favorite Storylines" slide. He doesn’t have to risk anything, he doesn’t have to run hard and he definitely doesn’t have to win Sunday, given he’s already advanced to a berth in the championship-deciding race at Homestead a little over two weeks from now.

But this is Jeff Gordon, a four-time Sprint Cup champion. While logic would dictate that he just drives around and has an average day, Gordon is still one of the most competitive drivers in the sport. If he has a chance late in Sunday’s race to go for the checkered flag, you better believe he’ll go for it.

Kevin Harvick

Here’s an interesting irony. Harvick has won five times at Texas in the Xfinity Series and one other time in the Camping World Truck Series—but he’s never won a Sprint Cup race there. But just because he hasn’t taken a Cup checkered flag doesn’t mean he typically does poor there. On the contrary.

In 25 career starts, Harvick has five top-five and 13 top-10 finishes. Texas is one of only four tracks he’s yet to win at in his Cup career (the others are Kentucky, Pocono and Sonoma). If there was ever a best time for him to win—and get an automatic berth into the championship race, where he can defend last year’s title—Sunday at Texas is it.

Kyle Busch

The younger Busch brother is sitting very well heading into Texas, tied for second in the Sprint Cup standings with Martin Truex Jr. Busch continues to impress after coming back from the devastating wreck he had at Daytona to start the year. Busch will be looking for a win Sunday, no question about it.

And here’s something else to consider: Even though he has four wins this season, Busch hasn’t won since capturing the Brickyard 400 more than three months ago. He’s overdue for a win. And if he is able to reach Victory Lane, he will join Jeff Gordon as having automatic berths in the final winner-take-all championship-deciding race at Homestead.

Dark-Horse Pick: Martin Truex Jr.

Jonathan Moore/Getty Images

Even though he’s tied for second in the Chase with Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. definitely falls into the dark-horse category for this Sunday’s race.

As hard as it may seem to believe, Truex has won just three races in his Sprint Cup career. But Sunday provides him a perfect opportunity to capture No. 4.

Plus, he has a decent overall record at Texas. In 20 starts there, he may only have two top fives, but he has nine top 10s and has earned two of his seven career poles there.

He likes racing on 1.5-mile tracks and has already seen what happens to a driver who may be in second place heading into the final race of a given round and then winds up being eliminated from advancing to the next round (ask Denny Hamlin about that).

And the Winner Is: Kurt Busch

Steve Sheppard/Associated Press

Like with Jeff Gordon, I’m going for two straight.

I picked Gordon to win at Martinsville, and now I’m going against the grain and picking Kurt Busch to win Sunday’s race at Texas.

Busch has a decent record there: In 25 starts he has one win, three top-five and 13 top-10 finishes. After being wrecked out at Martinsville while fighting for the lead, Busch said he would come back to win at Texas and also at Phoenix—and I believe he can grab a win at at least one of them, if not both.

I see Gordon and Busch both being in the final round at Homestead. Gordon did it with a win; Busch can do so, as well.

Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski