Clemson Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Clemson is unbeaten on the season at 6-0 but only 1-3 against the spread over its last four games, seemingly favored by a few points too many too often. The Tigers will go off as favorites on the road when they meet Miami for an ACC interdivisional bout Saturday afternoon at Sun Life Stadium.

Point spread: Tigers opened as 3.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.5-20.3 Tigers

Why the Clemson Tigers can cover the spread

Clemson now owns a nine-game winning streak after beating Boston College last week 34-17. The Tigers spotted the Eagles the first score of the game, rolled to a 34-10 fourth-quarter lead but eschewed the cover as 18-point favorites when they gave up a meaningless BC touchdown with a minute and a half to go. On the night, Clemson outgained the Eagles 532-246, as quarterback DeShaun Watson threw for 420 yards and three touchdowns and ran for one more, while the defense held Boston College to just 87 yards through the air.

One month ago, the Tigers won at Louisville 20-17 but missed on the cover as five-point road favorites; just after that they beat Notre Dame 24-22 but missed on the cover at -3. So three of Clemson's ATS defeats have come by a total of four points.

Why the Miami Hurricanes can cover the spread

After losing consecutive road games at Cincinnati and at Florida State, the Hurricanes returned home last week and beat Virginia Tech 30-20. Miami took a 7-0 lead three minutes into the game and never trailed, later clinching the win and the cover as a field-goal favorite on a short Brad Kaaya touchdown pass with just under three minutes to go.

The Hurricanes held the ball on offense for over 32 minutes and won the turnover battle 4-0, and those are usually good ways to win and cover college football games. Kaaya now owns a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interceptions ratio this season.

Two weeks ago, Miami lost at undefeated Florida State 29-24 but held on for the cover as a seven-point road dog. If it can keep this week's game that close, it'll cover.

Smart pick

This is a tough one to call, but ultimately the talent differential isn't as great as the spread might indicate. Also, while teams ranked in the AP Top 25 this season are 104-15 SU against unranked foes, they're only 56-62 ATS. So home-dog Miami looks like the smart money here.

Betting trends

Clemson is 3-1 ATS in its last four games against Miami.

Miami is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home.

Clemson is 1-5 ATS in its last six games in October.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.