Washington Redskins vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The unbeaten Atlanta Falcons will look to move to 5-0 straight up and against the spread when they host the Washington Redskins Sunday. The Falcons have been one of the most dominant teams in the NFL so far this season, and they are 4-1 SU in their last five games as favorites against the Redskins.

Point spread: The Falcons opened as nine-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.0-21.3 Falcons

Why the Redskins can cover the spread

While Washington looked bad against the New York Giants on Thursday night a couple of weeks ago, this is a team that has two wins and would have another if it wasn’t for a special teams breakdown versus the Miami Dolphins in the season opener. The Redskins have played well defensively outside of the Giants game and showed a lot of grit in holding off the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday in a 23-20 victory.

Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins is also coming off his best performance of the season against the Eagles, playing within himself and not trying to do too much. Cousins did not throw an interception in either of the two wins and tossed one in each of the two losses, so he just needs to keep playing under control and be a leader.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta would love nothing more than to turn this game into another shootout because the Redskins simply do not have the offensive personnel to keep up on the scoreboard.

The Falcons have enjoyed a nice balance of running and passing between quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Devonta Freeman, who leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns with seven. The running game has been severely lacking for Ryan in the past few years, which has put too much pressure on him to win games by himself.

On defense, new head coach Dan Quinn has given the unit a strong identity, taking what he learned from serving as defensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks and applying it to his current players. Atlanta needs to be feared and play tough, and that’s exactly what Quinn has brought to the table through his first four games there.

Smart pick

The Falcons have covered their first four games rather easily, winning three SU as underdogs. That obviously will not be the case here, but they are favored by too many points in this spot.

The Redskins are fully capable of slowing down the game and making sure this does not get unmanageable from an offensive perspective. They will run the ball and play good defense in hopes of keeping it close and stealing a victory. Washington may not win this one on the road, but the team will cover the spread.

Betting trends

The Redskins are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games on the road in October.

The Redskins are 1-14 SU and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as road underdogs.

The Falcons are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.