Denver Broncos vs. Detroit Lions Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Denver Broncos look to improve upon a dismal betting trend and remain undefeated when they visit the winless Detroit Lions on Sunday night. The Broncos have gone just 1-5 straight up and against the spread in their last six games versus NFC North opponents, while the Lions are riding a four-game losing streak overall.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 21.4-19.6 Lions

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Denver has proven to have one of the NFL’s best defenses through the first two games, bailing out future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning, who has not looked himself so far this season. The Broncos D has taken a lot of pressure off Manning and given him tremendous confidence in his teammates on that side of the ball, which could make the Broncos dangerous come playoff time.

Detroit’s offense has sputtered as well in losing to the San Diego Chargers and Minnesota Vikings, with quarterback Matthew Stafford now dealing with a painful rib injury. Stafford’s status will allow Manning to focus more on moving the chains and putting points up on the board than getting involved in an offensive shootout.

Why the Lions can cover the spread

The Lions will be playing their first home game of the season in prime time and on national television, and they will definitely want to put on a show and perform at their best for their fans in this big spot. Even though Stafford will probably be playing hurt, that will allow them to play more conservatively on offense and limit risks along with potential mistakes and turnovers.

Defensively, Detroit should feed off the crowd, and it knows Manning is not at his best for Denver, either.

Manning has thrown an interception in each of the first two games, and both were returned for touchdowns by the opposition. He has been fortunate that his defense has been able to return the favor by scoring touchdowns as well, but that won’t be the case every week, as his luck will eventually run out and could well end here.

Smart pick

The Lions are a much better team than their record suggests, while the Broncos are not nearly as good as their record suggests. Detroit head coach Jim Caldwell also knows Manning’s tendencies well from their days together with the Indianapolis Colts and should be able to use that against him.

Look for the Lions to pick up their first win in their home opener and hand Denver its first loss in what should be a favorable spot as an underdog.

Betting trends

The Broncos are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games in September.

The Broncos are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games against the NFC North.

The total has gone over in nine of the Lions’ last 10 games against the AFC West.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.