The Five: Re-opening the G.O.A.T. Discussion

There are five players in NBA history who have a legitimate claim on the title of greatest of all time (G.O.A.T.), though for many fans it’s sacrilege to suggest that it could be anyone other than Michael Jordan (I can hear them screaming right now, and I expect their inflammatory comments on this thread). 

These folks remind me of people who glare at you with a hint of intended violence as they assert that America is the greatest country on earth (I don’t say that it isn’t), but who have never been to another country, and don’t care in the least if the U.S. is not No. 1 in the world in any of the criteria in which the greatest country might reasonably be expected to be the leader. 

(The U.S. is not No. 1 in per capita income, life expectancy, education, [low] infant mortality rate, or self-reported happiness.  We are, however, No. 1 among industrialized nations in self-satisfaction, putting people in jail, and military spending.) 

A case can be made for America as the greatest (as for Michael as G.O.A.T.), but “greatest” is a comparative attribute—you need data about the contenders.  If not, you’re talking about a religious belief, not an informed judgment. 

What I want to do here is not to make a definitive claim about whom I consider the G.O.A.T., but just to open up a discussion that for too many seems to be closed.

THE FIVE, in alphabetical order: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Wilt Chamberlain, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, and Bill Russell. 

Each of these players ranks highest in at least one of the criteria that need to be considered: greatest body of work over the course of a long career, most dominating in peak years, greatest winner, greatest modern champion, and greatest champion. 

Ultimately, the claim to THE greatest depends on the relative weights assigned to the criteria.

But before I go into all that, I’ll quickly run through some of the other names that people are likely to say should also be considered. 

Kobe Bryant: He is the second greatest two-guard in NBA history, and in my book he hovers somewhere around 10th all-time.  He is not, however, even in the top five in any of the key categories. 

Bryant’s case gives me an opportunity, however, to reflect on why I think it is that people value Jordan and Bryant so much to the exclusion of other worthy candidates. 

People love two-guards.  Ironically, the two-guard position on average is probably the least impact position in the NBA.  Except for the rare exceptions, it is basically an individual matchup, score, and defend position. 

The two-guard does not run the offense like the point guard, and he does not rebound and defend the paint like a big man.  For that reason, a two-guard like Jordan or Bryant who rises to the highest level seems all the more impressive to fans. 

Furthermore, people like to imagine themselves making moves from the wing much more than they like to imagine themselves setting picks and boxing out down low with all the other big bodies. 

The two is a more elegant position.  Still, unless Kobe wins a couple more championships, he doesn’t belong in a discussion of the very highest stratosphere of NBA greatness.

Oscar Robertson: Yes, the Big O was an amazing stat machine.  By my formula, he is second all-time in overall statistical production.  But O was not a great winner. 

I’m not just talking about the fact that he could not get his Cincinnati Royals past the Russell and Chamberlain teams in the 60's (in spite of the fact that he had the great Jerry Lucas as a teammate). 

I’m talking about the fact that Robertson’s teams, for his career, managed just a .590 winning percentage, and .535 in post-seasons.  For comparison, none of THE FIVE falls below .625 for regular seasons (and that’s Jordan, folks), or below .550 post-seasons (Chamberlain). 

Robertson may be the greatest example of big numbers that don’t produce big wins in NBA history.

Jerry West: The icon, yes, but forget it.  He’s not even close in any of the key categories.

Shaq: Again, he’s not in the top five in any key category, so how could he be No. 1 overall?

George Mikan: Technically, no one was more dominating than Mikan, ever.  He played essentially six seasons (not counting an aborted comeback attempt a couple of years later), and carried the Minneapolis Lakers to five championships. 

His percentage of his team’s production in the championship years was 34.1 percent (for comparison, Wilt’s was 29.7, Michael’s 25.3).  BUT, six seasons do not constitute a full career, nor qualify Mikan for G.O.A.T. in my book. 

Furthermore, though I don’t buy the time machine question in the case of Chamberlain and Russell (would they fare as well in today’s game?—Chamberlain would absolutely punish today’s centers, and Russell fought Chamberlain tooth-and-nail), it’s a legitimate consideration in Mikan’s case. 

At 6’10”, he certainly couldn’t dominate today at center, and we’ll never know if with modern training methods he could have stepped up his speed, strength, and agility to compete with today’s power forwards, but certainly as he was he’d have been outmatched.

OK, let’s move on to the real contenders.

Greatest body of work over the course of a whole career: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. 

This one’s not even close.  Kareem basically had two full careers, the 70's and the 80's.  In the 70's, he was by far the most dominating player in the game, and in fact was the third most dominating player (in peak years) ever (after Mikan and Chamberlain). 

In Kareem’s “second career” of the 80s, he dropped to probably the fifth or sixth best player in the league and the second best on his team, but he helped the Lakers win five championships. 

Kareem scored more points than anyone ever, but more importantly he totaled far more “win-shares” than anyone ever (win-shares measure a player’s contribution to his team’s success—it’s the player’s percentage of his team’s statistical production, multiplied times wins): 264.73 win-shares for Kareem to a distant 226.15 by Chamberlain. 

Michael ended up with 194.01 win-shares for his career.  Kareem is the Hank Aaron of NBA history.  Aaron became the all-time home run leader without ever hitting more than 47 home runs in a single season, but just by being really, really good for a really long time. 

We need to respect durability and sustained excellence.  In the NBA, there has never been another player with Kareem’s height who had that kind of agility and grace, wiry strength, shooting accuracy (the incredible sky hook!), skillful passing, and very high level of intelligence, competing to the age of 41.  Amazing.

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