Breaking Down Danny Green's Fascinating Free-Agent Case

Danny Green can thank the San Antonio Spurs for the payday awaiting him in free agency.

No matter where his money will come from, it's going to feature a splash of the Spurs' trademark silver and black.

San Antonio's time-tested assembly line helped Green gain his NBA footing. The Spurs grabbed the former second-round pick in 2010, after the Cleveland Cavaliers waived him following a forgettable rookie year. He'd be cut again in San Antonio, grind his way through the NBA Development League and spend some time overseas before fully forcing his way into the Spurs' plans.

Green's work ethic undoubtedly fueled his rise from waiver-wire casualty to a world champion's permanent starter. But the Spurs have provided a lift at every step of the process.

Their Hall of Fame-bound quartet of Tim Duncan, Gregg Popovich, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili gave Green the ultimate examples to follow. San Antonio's egalitarian offense allowed his lethal catch-and-shoot sniping to shine, while helping to hide his limitations as a ball-handler and individual creator.

"[I've] definitely matured so much as a player being in this organization, being around Pop, Timmy, Tony, Manu [Ginobili], those are true professionals," Green said in June 2013, via USA Today's Sam Amick. "And also the opportunity. Pop gives us young guys a great opportunity to show what we can do."

The Spurs put Green in position to succeed, and that's exactly what he did. But because his success happened in San Antonio, it comes attached with a fascinating—and perhaps damaging—asterisk. League executives aren't sure whether it can be replicated outside of the Alamo City.

"Green is perhaps the most divisive free agent of the summer in league circles," Grantland's Zach Lowe wrote. "Lot of execs would scoff at giving him a deal in the $10 million range; the phrase 'product of the Spurs system' is thrown around a lot. ... But Green is no longer just a system player who mooches wide-open threes."

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It's a bit strange that Green's skill set might scare off any suitors, since his strengths align almost perfectly with the league-wide move to a pace-and-space game.

Teams won't shy away from the three-point shot any time soon. Not when this season's four conference finalists all finished among the top five in long-range makes. That puts a premium on perimeter marksmen, and Green is one of the best in the business.

Three players have had at least 100 threes on 40-plus percent shooting in each of the last four seasons: Kyle Korver, Klay Thompson and Green. The latter's 44.9 percent conversion rate on catch-and-shoot triples ranked seventh out of the 75 players who attempted at least three such shots per game.

Green isn't just a good shooter; he's a great one. That alone puts him in exclusive company, but his play at the opposite end is what really separates himself from his shot-chucking peers.

"Green is one of 57 players who made at least 100 three-pointers during the regular season," noted the San Antonio Express-News' Dan McCarney. "Twelve of those players, including Green, shot 40 percent or better. One, league MVP Stephen Curry, had more defensive win shares than Green's 3.9. None had a better defensive rating than Green's 100."

Category	Statistic	SG Rank	NBA Rank
Three-Pointers	191	6th	8th
Three-Point Percentage	41.8	6th	7th
Effective Field-Goal Percentage	56.6	2nd	T-6th
Defensive Rating	100.5	2nd	16th
Defensive Win Shares	3.9	4th	T-17th
Defensive Real Plus-Minus	2.16	7th	T-48th

Green's combination of size (6'6", 215 lbs), length (6'10" wingspan), intelligence and instincts make him an ideal perimeter defender.

He can seamlessly transition through multiple assignments. He has the quickness to stay in front of point guards, the motor to chase three-point gunners around screens and the strength to keep slashers away from the paint.

Effort plays a huge role at the defensive end, and Green always gives everything he has. He also doesn't quit on plays, a gift that pays dividends when opposing teams get out in the open court.

There's plenty to like about Green, but he has his warts. And there's a fear they could become more noticeable away from the Spurs system.

He's not going to create his own shot. More than 65 percent of his career two-point field goals and 94 percent of his threes have been assisted. If he takes more than a couple of dribbles, he can get himself into trouble.

He's not the most explosive athlete, and that limits what he can do when he ventures inside the arc. His drives don't often take him where he wants to go, whether that's all the way to the basket or deep enough to collapse the defense and open passing lanes.

And despite calling San Antonio home for the last five seasons, he's not an effective passer. His career-high 10.3 assist percentage ranked just 24th among the 120 guards who cleared the 1,000-minute mark this season.

To his credit, Green understands who he is. He rarely steps outside of his lane. He finds his shots within the offensive flow and makes the most of the ones his teammates create. It's not the most self-sufficient style of play, but if clubs can't generate open jumpers for shooters, they have bigger problems at hand than potentially overpaying Green.

It's hard to say how much would even be too much.

According to CBS Sports' Ken Berger, Green is expected to fetch an annual salary in the $10 million to $12 million range. If that sounds a little steep, just remember the salary cap is about to burst in the near future, via DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony:

Green could soon be commanding just 10 percent of a team's total cap. That's money very well spent on a lockdown defender and lights-out shooter who also brings along a wealth of postseason experience.

But which club is going to foot that bill? Green doesn't sound like he wants to leave San Antonio, but he also understands this might not be his call to make.

"Hopefully, I'll be back," Green said, via Mike Monroe of the San Antonio Express-News. "I love San Antonio. The fans have always supported us, from day one. It sucks that we had such a special group, and things may be changing and not be the same again."

The Spurs have to deal with Kawhi Leonard's restricted free agency, then see whether Duncan and Ginobili—both unrestricted free agents—are willing to put off retirement for another year. They could also go big-game hunting with their sights set on either LaMarcus Aldridge or Marc Gasol, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein.

San Antonio has bigger fish to fry than Green. It should try to keep him around, but not if it prevents the possibility of landing a perennial All-Star.

Green could be the good soldier and wait for the dust to settle before making his move. But suitors might come calling before the Spurs can get around to him.

The New York Knicks have money to burn and a serious itch for two-way talent. Green, a New York native, should be an obvious target for the 'Bockers.

Really, any team with cap room should have Green on the radar.

The Los Angeles Lakers might need a long-term shooting guard if they don't address that position in the draft. The Portland Trail Blazers could lose either Wesley Matthews or Arron Afflalo (or both) to free agency. The Dallas Mavericks might have an opening to fill if Monta Ellis opts out of his deal and moves on.

Green could have an impact on any of those teams. The multimillion-dollar question executives will have to answer is whether that impact can be as great as the one he's made in San Antonio.

Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.

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