Turns out Dwight Howard Can Still Star for Houston Rockets

The reports of the demise of Dwight Howard’s career have been greatly exaggerated, albeit in an entirely understated way. Relegated to near obscurity prior to the postseason, the Houston Rockets' not-so-fading star has gone supernova against the Dallas Mavericks.

The slights on Howard weren’t pointed—at least in the mainstream media. It was more about his omission from the conversation, than outright snubs. It was as though he wasn’t even worth discussing.

In an ESPN.com preview from Amin Elhassan and Bradford Doolittle, Howard had two passing mentions. Matt Moore of CBSSports.com only mentioned that a “mostly-healthy” Howard is back. Jonathan T Jarks at RealGM.com said, “The Rockets need vintage Dwight Howard to have any chance at winning a championship” but didn’t elaborate on whether it can or will happen.

In an interview with Kirk Goldsberry of Grantland.com, Mavericks owner Mark Cuban went a step further when he suggested that apart from James Harden, the Rockets were “not a very good team.” Whether the omission of Howard—a player Cuban once sought to sign—is deliberate or incidental is unclear.

But Howard does not care if you think he’s done. It’s taken just two games and an emphatic thunder-dunkathon to announce that he is back. He’s looking as spry as he has since he was since he was raking in three consecutive Defensive Player of the Year awards with the Orlando Magic from 2009-11.

When he’s not man-handling Tyson Chandler, he’s springing about like Tigger on amphetamines, cleaning glass and ooping alleys. The only question now is whether he is more dominant on the offensive or defensive end of the court.

Defense

The Mavericks haven’t been great on offense when Howard’s not playing.  But when he is playing they are completely impotent. The numbers are staggering.  Knowing what the numbers are, and why they are what they are, are two different things, though. 

The Mavericks’ offensive rating when Howard is playing is just 88.9. That’s nearly 20 points below the 107.2 they scored during the regular season. To understand why Howard is helping the Rockets to such incredible success against the Mavs, you have to understand their entire theory of basketball.

Rockets general manager Daryl Morey loves analytics, including the notion that there are areas of the court that are more beneficial than others. Field-goal attempts from the restricted area and three-point line are preferred. 

The Rockets are famous for exploiting that on the offensive end, but what’s more subtle is that they use the same approach to their defense. A big part of their strategy is to protect the restricted area and chase shooters off the three-point line. That’s why they led the NBA in opponents’ three-point shooting percentage in the regular season at 32.2.

However, without Howard there for half the season to help protect the interior, they struggled to defend the restricted area, yielding the fifth-most makes at the rim, 17.3, and the eighth-highest field-goal percentage, 61.3.

With Howard back and healthy, he is shutting down that area emphatically. The Mavericks have made just 14 shots at the rim in 50 minutes (equal to 13.4 per game) and made just 50 percent of their attempts. Both those rates would lead the NBA. And it is directly attributable to Howard.

When Howard has personally been the defender within six feet of the basket, the Mavericks have gone 4-of-14, which is 28.2 percentage points below their normal averages. In other words, you’re better off settling for a long two than testing Howard inside.

While Howard has been on the bench, though, the Mavericks are having their way. They’ve made 24 shots at the rim in 46 minutes (25.0 per game) and have been successful on 61.5 percent of their attempts.

The inside impact of Howard is obvious. And that carries a kind of “reverse gravity” effect.

Dave Tulis/Associated Press

“Gravity," in basketball, is a term coined for offensive players, who because of their ability to catch-and-shoot from deep, “hold” defenders close to them, even when they don’t have the ball. Kyle Korver is an example of a player with gravity.

Players who have gravity “stretch the court," meaning they force defenders to cover more area. That has the effect of creating opportunities for other scorers.

I’d like to introduce the notion of the opposite of that: reverse gravity. That’s a defensive player who is such a deterrent at the rim that he frees up his teammates to play tighter perimeter defense.

Opponents are afraid to go inside so they hover around the perimeter. Thus, defenders are able to stick closer, go over picks and sag less off of shooters because they can trust the safety net behind them. In essence, a player with defensive gravity “shrinks the court."

Howard’s impact supports such a notion. The Rockets’ three-point defense has been dramatically better with him on the court, even though he has defended just one three-point shot directly. The Mavs are shooting 36.0 percent while Howard sits but just 21.4 percent when he’s playing.

Look here, for example, of what happens with Howard sitting in Game 1. The Mavs pass the ball inside to Nowitzki, and the defense craters. Nowitzki passes it out to Parsons who swings it over to the wide-open Rondo for a corner three.

The Rockets are too far inside the lane to recover and contest the shot. In fact, notice the screen cap immediately before Nowitzki’s pass. All five Rockets have both feet inside the paint.

ESPN

I would show you a comparison of when Howard is on, but I can’t because the Mavericks haven’t even been able to attempt a three off a pass from the post with Howard in the game. In fact, the Mavs have only made one three-pointer out of their set offense, period.

The cumulative impact of Howard’s rim protection and reverse gravity is devastating. The Mavs have had just 53.1 percent of their makes come in the Morey Zones while Howard is playing compared to 73.3 percent when he’s not.

On Offense

Howard’s impact when the Rockets have the ball is no less impressive, and it mirrors that of his effect on the defensive end, i.e. dominating at the rim with that dominance having a ripple effect that extends to the three-point line.

The numbers are equally stunning. The Rockets’ offensive rating is 113.8 when Howard is on and only 101.3 when he’s sitting.

If there’s a number that elucidates his offensive impact, it’s this. Howard has 10 dunks through the first two games. The entire Mavericks roster has six. The restricted area is his domain on both sides of the court.

Howard is 15-of-20 from there. The rest of the team is 11-of 20 at the rim with him on the court. When he sits, they’re 22-38. He’s shooting 75.0 percent within three feet; the rest of the Rockets are shooting 56.8 percent.

There’s really nothing to break down here, only appreciate. When you’re nearly seven feet of hardened muscle and flying with the ease of an aerial acrobat, you’re just unstoppable. With Josh Smith delivering soft serves that would be the envy of Dairy Queen, Howard was eviscerating Chandler in Game 2:

Chandler wasn’t the only victim, though. Let’s look at that spin move against Nowitzki again, and again, and again.

NBA.com

Howard’s dominance at the rim opens up things for his three-point shooters as well. The extra “help” (I use that term loosely) to try to stop Howard opens up better looks for the Rockets’ snipers.

Houston has nine treys when he’s on the court compared to seven when he’s not. Its three-point percentage jump from 31.8 percent to 39.1 percent when he takes the court.

Conclusion

Through two games, the Rockets have outscored the Mavericks by 34 points when Howard is on the court and been outscored by 12 when he sits—a net difference of 46 points in 50 minutes. And he’s doing that against Chandler, who is a former DPOY winner himself. But Howard is taking it in stride.

Per Calvin Watkins of ESPN.com, after Game 2, Howard said of his air show:

"

It felt good but the main thing that we were concerned with was the defense and when we get stops we're able to get out and make plays. All the passing and the lobs were great but our defense in the third quarter was also good and that's what allowed us to get out and make plays.

"

That’s a measured, focused version of Howard. While still able to enjoy the moment, he wasn’t letting himself get distracted by it, or lose sight of the bigger picture. That’s a growth that wasn’t there in Orlando.

You also see it in the chippiness he's shown when tested. When Chandler tried pushing him, he pushed back—literally. For a big man who has been criticized in the past for being soft, this is a good thing. 

He’s playing with the energy, health and enthusiasm of his youth, but he’s added the purpose, determination and maturity of someone who is on a mission to win his first ring. If he keeps going like this, he just might get it.