Rafael Nadal's Blueprint to Return to Elite Form Before the 2015 French Open

Another year, another comeback blueprint for Rafael Nadal to ultimately win the 2015 French Open. The journey to Roland Garros has always featured new plot twists and turns but the same ending. Nadal has claimed nine championships in one decade, a French Open rerun that would hardly qualify as original production for the critically acclaimed Cannes Film Festival.

February 2015 has already shown differences in Nadal’s current schedule, and it promises new possibilities in the weeks and months ahead. Though renowned for his on-court routines and tics, Nadal is willing to change and adapt with big-picture decisions, hoping that the road he clears will be victorious.

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Schedule Shifting

Two years ago, Nadal returned to tennis after a seven-month comeback from a knee injury. It was a media sensation for tennis. He played South America’s “Golden Swing,” including an appearance in the final at Vina del Mar, Chile, and followed by titles at Sao Paulo, Brazil and Acapulco, Mexico.

Nadal built momentum for his surprise title at Indian Wells and reinforced most of his clay-court empire at Barcelona, Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros. Furthermore, he had the strength and energy to sweep the North American tour including the U.S. Open, thereby catapulting him back to the No. 1 ranking. It was an epic result, and February’s springboard must be credited.

Last year was much more difficult for Nadal. After his Australian Open back injury, he entered South America with notable differences in his schedule. He did not play at Chile, swapped Sao Paulo’s indoor clay for the inaugural outdoor-clay venue at Rio de Janeiro (worth 500 points for his title), and he did not play at Acapulco, which changed its surface to hard courts.

Nadal’s back concerns and struggles to regain his top form at Europe seemed to rub away the shiny veneer of his red-clay invincibility, but Madrid and Roland Garros salvaged his year and capped off the last of his 2014 titles.

On the surface, 2015 has similarities. Nadal will not play until the latter half of February. Next week, he will look to defend Rio de Janeiro and then jaunt over to Buenos Aires, Argentina, before resting up for Indian Wells.

The first enormous verdict will be rendered at Indian Wells. If he does well, semifinals or better, things will look good heading toward Miami and Europe. Conversely, if he slogs through Monte Carlo and Barcelona, many will wonder if his Waterloo has finally come.

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Telltale Signs

Even the greatest champions must peak to play their very best tennis. Nadal has been perhaps the most prepared tennis athlete ever to prioritize one major venue and its front-line tournaments.

We’ve also learned enough about his history to watch for a few important keys in evaluating his form and progress during the upcoming series of battles. How will he perform on the following?

Movement: Health and fitness must be optimum for Nadal if he is to play with defensive ferocity, even if he is still the best at sliding into his shots and moving on clay. Ten years ago, Nadal was more of a retriever, able to rely on his youth and energy to track down seemingly every ball from his opponents. He peaked with this style at the 2009 Australian Open.

His strategy has evolved with more aggressive and biting offense, primarily a counter to Novak Djokovic and other big hitters. Nadal has learned to shorten more points and set up his offense with more initiative. He peaked with this style at the 2013 U.S. Open.

Offensive Backhand: Indian Wells 2013 was a great example of how Nadal’s backhand could be lethal with flatter power and depth. When he is grooving the backhand, he is closer to defending his ad court, more able to set up his forehand and consequently a better mover.

Savvy Serving: Nadal’s best asset in defending his serve is his mind. When he pinpoints his first serve, there are several benefits. It’s not so much if he can serve up an ace but that he can produce a few more service winners. He also coerces more short balls from opponents, which sets up more of his forehand advantage. Usually this control leads to Nadal winning the point.

Confidence: When Nadal’s movement and strokes are in high gear, his competitive snarl is very imposing. It’s a huge edge over opponents, leading many opponents to give in or accept defeat. Last year’s French Open quarterfinal saw Nadal destroy David Ferrer over the final two sets. Later Ferrer conceded that he packed it in, explaining via Reuters' Julien Pretot:

"

(In the second set) Rafael started playing a lot better, making fewer mistakes, and then it's like I threw in the towel.

I don't usually do this, but I thought, I'm not going to be able to come back into the match. I thought, No, no, not against Rafa. He's such good a player.

"

Match by match, at upcoming tournaments, these keys will measure his success or shortcomings. If he plays with his A-level in all four aforementioned categories, he will be unbeatable. If he grades well in three categories without anything collapsing, he should be very dominant. But if two or more of these areas give him trouble, especially his movement and confidence, it could be more of a struggle, a bit more like 2014 than 2013.

But even a “struggling Nadal” would love to repeat 2014. That’s right. He won the French Open title anyway.