Australian Open Final 2015: Why Maria Sharapova Has Edge over Serena Williams

Nearly two weeks of action will soon culminate with the women's Australian Open 2015 final. Ready and waiting to battle it out are Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams. But it's the world No. 2 who'll have the edge heading in to Saturday's showdown.

Brushing past Ekaterina Makarova in her semifinal bout, the 27-year-old Sharapova looked great value for her win as she eased through in straight sets 6-3, 6-2.

As for Williams, she managed to deal convincingly with the challenge of surprise candidate Madison Keys. Emerging victorious 7-6, 6-2, she has set herself right on course to win her 19th Grand Slam.

Both matches epitomised just how classy these players are.

Head and shoulders above the rest of the field, this one's shaping up to be a real corker.

But it's Sharapova who looks to have the advantage. So here, we break down exactly why that's the case.

Sharapova will be sharper

Although both players have played splendidly throughout, it's the Russian star who's had an easier route to the final.

Involved in just one three-setter, the player affectionately dubbed "Mighty Masha" in some quarters hasn't had to go through as draining a process as Serena. On the other hand, the 2010 Aussie Open champion has endured two—against Garbine Muguruza and Elina Svitolina.

The way it's shaping up, Sharapova will have a great chance to ambush her opponent in the final; her stronger starts to matches this month will most certainly have an impact. 

Producing some very aggressive forehand shots (as per usual) as well as some fantastic groundstrokes to stretch her opponents across the court, the five-time Slam champion blew all of them out of the water by winning each opening set in style.

In fact, the world No. 2 has only dropped one set in all 13 she has played so far, compared with the two Williams let slip in 14. Furthermore, the two sets the 33-year-old lost were opening ones.

Andy Brownbill/Associated Press

Add this to the fact Williams is enduring a torrid time with a cold and it's clear Maria should be sharper and more comfortable heading in to the final.

As reported by the Associated Press (h/t ESPN.com), the American had to cut her practice short on Friday due to being ill.

And by the sounds of things, she wasn't going to feel better any time soon: "I had a false start. I wasn't feeling really well. I've been sick with a cold all week, and I got better, then I got worse this morning."

Assert control early on and this match is Sharapova's for the taking.

Fewer unforced errors and superior net-play will be an advantage

Since the fourth round began, Sharapova has been making fewer unforced errors than her fierce rival.

The margins are slim, but they're there.

Vincent Thian/Associated Press/Associated Press

According to the official Australian Open website, starting from the Russian's fourth-round victory over Shuai Peng, the reigning French Open champion has been guilty of just 59 in her last three games.

As for Williams, her record over this period of games is slightly worse, making 69.

In matches like this, it can often be the minor details that make a difference, and the Russian right-hander will be out to maintain that consistency. Add this to her very strong net-play and it's clear she has some decent weaponry.

Looking at statistics compiled by the Aussie Open website for both players' semifinals, it's clear Sharapova possesses a penchant for winning net points. Maria won 100 percent, while Serena managed just 67 percent. 

By once more utilising her strength to approach the net confidently, Mighty Masha will force Williams to gamble for trickier shots. Either that or Williams will have to engage in some testing rallies away from her comfort zone. Combine a decent serve with this and the 27-year-old will certainly increase Serena's unforced errors.

It's a gamble, but it should pay off. No doubt, persistence in this regard will be a major boost.

Fantastic return of serve will be key

A lot has been made of Sharapova's long-running losing streak to Williams, which stretches back to 2005.

As reported by Christopher Clarey of The New York Times, it seems as if she doesn't particularly like reflecting back to when the defeats began to come so thick and fast: "I don't actually remember too much of it. It was a very physical battle. It was tough to lose that one, definitely had a lot of chances."

But the Russian's great return play should make another defeat unlikely. And more and more people are starting to believe in her.

Eskinder Debebe/Associated Press

As reported by Simon Briggs in The Telegraph (h/t the National Post), Martina Navratilova reckons she could win: "It's not impossible that Maria turns it around here. After all, we saw Tomas Berdych beat Rafael Nadal this week after 17 losses."

In each round so far she's combated brilliantly against the serves that have come her way. She has allowed very few aces to get past her, and she'll willingly do that again on Saturday. 

As discussed earlier, Sharapova is a baseline player like Williams, but she can mix her play up a lot better and has worked hard to add more moves to her repertoire down through the years.

Williams relies quite heavily on her powerful serve—it's her defining trait—but the woman who was crowned the champion Down Under back in 2008 can deal with that; she's already proved her capacity to counter big serving players this year.

And by keeping the rallies alive for longer with her unique abrasive style, Sharapova increases her chances of earning more and more points in every game. After all, the pressure is on the world No. 1 to reach Slam No. 19. 

Conclusion

Williams is pushing to make history.

Sharapova is fighting hard to get a rare win over one of her biggest foes.

The back-story is primed perfectly. The stage is set for a thrilling clash.

A victory for the Russian star would set her up for a potentially spectacular year and could see her hold two major titles at once for the first time in her career. A loss would perpetuate her status as a has-been.

All we need now is the usually raucous Australian crowd and we could well have a classic encounter on our hands.

Hold on to your seats.