Can the Ravens Afford to Pay Free Agent WR Torrey Smith?

Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Torrey Smith is one of the team's higher profile unrestricted free agents of 2015. Though 2014 wasn't his best year in terms of yardage, he did post a career-high 11 touchdowns in the regular season.

Smith would like to return to Baltimore, saying to Ryan Mink of BaltimoreRavens.com that, "For me, it's more like home now. It's tough to leave home at times. Also, it's a great organization. I genuinely love the people here. ... I really love being here." 

The feeling is mutual, based on head coach John Harbaugh's comments to Mink about Smith's impending free agency: "Personally, and I think I speak for everybody, when I say that we like Torrey a lot. We'd like to have him back. We'll just have to see how it plays out."

Smith would like to get a deal done before free agency begins in March. But the financial situation the Ravens have found themselves in could prohibit them from re-signing Smith before that time, if at all. 

Currently, the Ravens have around $400,000 in salary-cap space, according to Spotrac, granted that the cap is $138.6 million for 2015. That figure should grow over time—the Ravens have more free agents to concern themselves with than just Smith, as well as eventual draft picks to pay, which means some degree of financial maneuvering will take place in the coming months.

Year	Tgts.	Rec.	Rec.%	Yds.	YPC	TD
2011	95	50	52.6%	841	16.8	7
2012	110	49	44.5%	855	17.4	8
2013	137	65	47.4%	1,128	17.4	4
2014	92	49	53.2%	767	15.7	11
Total	434	213	49.1%	3,591	16.9	30

But it might not be enough to save Smith. Especially when it's difficult to determine what he's worth.

Smith has spent most of his time in Baltimore as the de facto No. 1 wide receiver, though he doesn't perform like one. He's caught only 49.1 percent of the passes thrown his way over the past four years, and has broken 50 percent just twice. He has 30 touchdowns and only one season with over 1,000 yards receiving.

Smith's value is also wrapped up in the penalties he draws. Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco leads the league in defensive pass interference penalties called in his favor with 78 since joining the Ravens in 2008. And since 2011, when Smith came aboard, Flacco has looked to the receiver most often to draw those penalties.

In 2014, Flacco threw 15 passes that resulted in pass interference penalties, 12 of those to Smith. They gave the Ravens a total of 261 additional yards, or 21.7 yards per penalty, higher than Smith's average yards per catch for both the 2014 season (15.7 yards) and over his career (16.9 yards). This knack for drawing penalties for a large gain must be considered in the deliberations of whether to and what to pay Smith moving forward.

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

Still, Smith's numbers, including the penalty bonuses, don't translate into him getting a huge contract. The cap situation also doesn't help Smith's chances of getting paid handsomely.

To free up the money, the Ravens will have to either release or restructure nose tackle Haloti Ngata, who has the Ravens' highest cap number in 2015 at $16 million. Flacco, too, would require restructuring—he accounts for $14.6 million of Baltimore's cap, as would cornerback Lardarius Webb, who is scheduled to make $12 million in salary and bonuses in 2015.

But there are also other players the Ravens would like to bring back for the 2015 season, including tight end Owen Daniels, who made $1 million on a one-year deal in 2014, and running back Justin Forsett, who made $730,000 on his one-year 2014 contract. Pass-rusher Pernell McPhee is also a free agent, and was an integral part of Baltimore's excellent front seven. 

Player	Snaps	Tgts.	Rec.	Rec.%	Yds.	TD	Contract	Avg. $/Yr.
Jerricho Cotchery	803	72	48	66.7%	580	1	$8.015 Mil	$1.603 Mil
Kenny Britt	812	90	60	66.7	755	3	$1.4 Mil	$1.4 Mil

Smith played 801 offensive snaps in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). That playing time is comparable to Jerricho Cotchery of the Carolina Panthers or Kenny Britt of the St. Louis Rams. Both players made between $1.4 and $1.6 million in 2014, and both caught a higher percentage of their passes. However, they combined for four touchdowns on the year.

So, with Smith, the Ravens have a receiver who plays as many snaps as his counterparts on other teams who make just over $1 million per season, catches a lower percentage of his passes but scores more touchdowns. 

This seems to indicate that Smith's worth is around $2 million per year for the Ravens. This is a manageable figure, especially with myriad ways to structure the contract that is both favorable for Smith and for the team. However, because of the cap crunch the Ravens are in and the other impending free agents they'd like to have back, that $2 million becomes prohibitive.

It's possible that the Ravens allow Smith to test free agency to figure out what his market value is. It's also possible that the Ravens focus on restructuring contracts and paying other players before coming up with the cash to sign Smith. 

It's not that Smith is expendable. He is an important role player for the Ravens as their deep threat and pass interference specialist. But determining his value, especially as it relates to Baltimore's looming salary-cap situation, will be difficult.