Francisco Liriano Signing Keeps Perfect Marriage Together in Pittsburgh

The Pittsburgh Pirates are keeping the gang together.

Having already signed free-agent right-hander A.J. Burnett earlier in the offseason, the Pirates agreed to bring back left-handed pitcher Francisco Liriano on a three-year, $39 million contract on Tuesday, per Robert Murray of MLBDailyRumors.com:

According to Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, the deal is the largest the Pirates have ever given to a free agent, surpassing the two-year, $17 million pact Russell Martin inked before the 2012 season.

The 31-year-old has been excellent in the Pirates’ starting rotation over the past two seasons, posting a 3.20 ERA and 3.26 fielding independent pitching (FIP) in 323.1 innings while making 55 starts.

Liriano’s 9.41 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) and 52.4 percent ground-ball rate during that time frame rank eighth and ninth, respectively, among all starters with at least 300 innings pitched.

He also allowed just 0.61 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) over the last two seasons, good for eighth in MLB.

With that said, Liriano’s control regressed considerably in 2014 (4.49 BB/9) and resulted in about one extra walk per nine innings compared to the previous year (3.52 BB/9). However, as has been the case for most of his career, the left-hander’s ability to miss bats and keep the ball on the ground helped minimize any negative impact stemming from his uptick in free passes.

Liriano has been key to the Pirates’ winning ways the past two years, as he anchored the pitching staff and netted the team 4.7 wins (fWAR).

Assuming Liriano passes his physical, the Pirates’ 2015 starting rotation will feature the same three-headed monster of Liriano, Burnett and Gerrit Cole—along with the less heralded Charlie Morton—that helped them crack a 20-year playoff drought back in 2013.

	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	fWAR
A.J. Burnett	30	191	3.30	2.80	3.16	9.85	0.52	4.0
Francisco Liriano	26	161	3.02	2.92	3.52	9.11	0.50	3.1
Gerrit Cole	19	117.1	3.22	2.91	2.15	7.67	0.54	2.3
Charle Morton	20	116	3.26	3.60	2.79	6.59	0.47	1.3

Three years and $39 million seems like a fair price for the Pirates, but it’s difficult to ignore Liriano’s extensive injury history and the reality that he’s probably not going make 30 starts or pile up innings.

For Dave Cameron of FanGraphs, the left-hander’s durability isn’t overly concerning.

“Even if you discount that performance for the lower total of innings pitched, Liriano looks like a plus-two WAR pitcher for 2015, with some upside beyond that. In this market, $39 million for that kind of value looks like a pretty nice steal for the Pirates,” he wrote.

Liriano’s dominance when healthy over the past two years makes the deal well worth the risk for the Pirates, especially given the overall strength of their rotation.

With Liriano locked up for the next three seasons, the Pirates—who entered the winter meetings with at least $15 million to spend toward the 2015 season, per Rob Biertempfel of TribLive.com—are expected to add even more pitching depth this offseason.

“At this point in time, assuming everything follows through and we sign another major league free-agent starting pitcher or we acquire another major league starting pitcher, I would think we’ll turn our attention to…other ways to improve the club,” Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said Tuesday on the MLB Network, via Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Biertempfel reports they have expressed interest in free-agent reliever Pat Neshek.

Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.