Odds for Top Stars in Women's Tennis to Win a Grand Slam in 2015
Women’s tennis is often cited as being unusually open, particularly in comparison to the men’s game.
Yet, from 2012-14, six women have claimed the 12 Grand Slams up for grabs—the same amount of male Slam winners across the same period.
Two of those (Marion Bartoli and Li Na) have since retired, while Victoria Azarenka—back-to-back winner of the Australian Open in 2012 and 2013—missed most of 2014 through injury and now finds herself ranked No. 31 in the world.
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The Belorussian has more than enough time and talent on her side to bounce back, but it remains unclear when she will be ready to do so.
The other three are Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova and Petra Kvitova, multiple Slam champions and arguably the three finest—and most imposing—talents on the WTA Tour.
These three powerhouses were joined by five players—Simona Halep, Ana Ivanovic, Agnieszka Radwanska, Eugenie Bouchard and Caroline Wozniacki—at this year’s stellar WTA Finals.
Given that the gap in ranking points between No. 8 Wozniacki and No. 9 Angelique Kerber is larger than the gap between Kerber and No. 17 Carla Suarez Navarro, it would thus be fair to conclude that these eight players currently represent the elite of women’s tennis.
Subsequently, it is those eight’s odds of winning a Slam in 2015 we will assess.
Caroline Wozniacki
Six months ago, the Dane would not have entered this conversation.
But following her high-profile break-up with golfer Rory McIlroy in May, the 24-year-old climbed 10 places from No. 18 in the rankings.
She did so by surprisingly reaching her second final at the U.S. Open in September, as well as the final in Tokyo a couple of weeks later, where she was beaten by fellow comeback queen Ana Ivanovic.
Following Li Na’s retirement, the door was opened for Wozniacki’s qualification for the WTA Finals, where she won every Round Robin match before narrowly falling to Serena Williams in the semifinal.
She may have failed to win a title in 2014, but she has at least produced promising signs of a return to prominence.
Remember, this was a player who was seeded No. 1 at six consecutive Slams not all that long ago.
She reached three semifinals at those tournaments but couldn’t quite make the next step.
If she can perform as she did in those Round Robin matches, particularly in her epic opening battle with Maria Sharapova, there is every chance she may do so in 2015.
Career Slam Best: Final, U.S. Open (2009, 2014)
Odds of Winning a Slam in 2015: 15/2
Eugenie Bouchard
The Canadian was awarded the Most Improved Player of the Year award at the annual WTA awards after being voted last season’s Breakthrough Player of the Year.
In terms of the elite, however, she is still very much a newcomer, even if she did not look like one as she romped to two Slam semifinals and a final in the first half of the year.
But a combination of increased pressure, opponents learning her weaknesses and general tiredness caught up with her by the end.
Indeed, she froze at her debut WTA Finals, winning only 11 games in three losses.
For a player who largely thrives on the big occasion, it was saddening to see.
Physically, she should return refreshed in 2015, but it may take some time for her to restore that confidence fans have come to love over the past 11 months.
Career Slam Best: Final, Wimbledon (2014)
Odds in 2015: 10/1
Agnieszka Radwanska
The popular Pole had a reasonably ordinary 2014, but she has managed to retain her status in the top tier of the women’s game.
It is testament to her commendable consistency: at the 10 highest-ranked tournaments outside of the Slams, only twice did she fail to reach at least the quarterfinal stage.
Her form prior to the WTA Finals was lacklustre, though, leading Patrick Johnston to rather bluntly summarise for Reuters that her “form has headed south since securing the Montreal title in August.”
Yet even in Singapore she managed to navigate an extremely competitive Round Robin group to reach the semifinal.
But there is no getting away from her recent disappointments at Slams: After reaching her third Slam semifinal at the Australian Open at the beginning of the year, she failed to reach the last eight at the ensuing three.
Unfortunately, for all her flair and masterful maneuvering of points, it remains unlikely she will ever possess the requisite power to win one.
Career Slam Best: Final, Wimbledon (2012)
Odds in 2015: 20/1
Ana Ivanovic
Only Serena Williams won more tournaments than Ana Ivanovic, whose four wins marked a remarkable return to the elite.
She defeated more top-10 players in 2014 than she managed in the previous three years combined, including the only defeat for Maria Sharapova on clay all year, as well as a fantastic first career win over Serena Williams on her way to the Australian Open quarterfinal.
Like Radwanska, however, Australia was comfortably as good as it got at the Slams for the Serb, as she failed to even reach a fourth round elsewhere.
Her third-round showing at the French Open, a tournament that was so kind to her during her early years on tour, was particularly disappointing.
She was desperately unlucky not to reach the semifinal at the WTA Finals having won two of her three matches, but regardless it capped a fine comeback year for the 27-year-old.
It should be noted, however, that none of her four tournament wins came at a Premier tournament.
If she couldn’t challenge at a Slam during an excellent year, frankly it remains unlikely she will do so again.
Career Slam Best: Winner, French Open (2008)
Odds in 2015: 20/1
Petra Kvitova
After winning Wimbledon and the WTA Finals at the age of 21 in 2011, the Czech powerhouse was tipped for greatness.
It hasn’t quite worked out like that.
Not yet, anyway.
In his preview of this year’s WTA Finals, Peter Bodo analysed for tennis.com that she “still needs to show that she can harness that striking power and left-handed juju with any regularity—something that’s less of a technical or physical issue than a mental one.”
Indeed, rarely has that been as obvious as at the finals.
Despite heading to Singapore in decent form, having won in Wuhan and reached the Beijing Open final, Kvitova failed to win a match in a desperately disappointing showing.
Yet one cannot help but think back to her second Wimbledon title less than five months ago; at 55 minutes, it was the shortest Wimbledon final in 31 years.
If Bouchard was the deer in headlights, then Kvitova was the car crashing into it.
Repeatedly.
Outside of Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams, the 24-year-old remains the most dangerous player on tour.
For that reason alone, she will always be likely to win a Slam across a calendar year.
Career Slam Best: Winner, Wimbledon (2011, 2014)
Odds in 2015: 5/2
Simona Halep
2013's Most Improved Player of the Year improved once more in 2014, climbing from No. 11 at the end of last year to establish herself amongst the top five for surely many years to come.
The Romanian narrowly lost to Maria Sharapova in a three-hour epic at the French Open, widely described as one of the best women’s finals of recent years, as per the Independent.
And despite an understandable drop in form thereafter, she bounced back to reach the final at the WTA Finals last month.
Having failed to beat Serena Williams in three previous encounters, she destroyed the American 6-0, 6-2 to end Williams’ 15-match winning streak at the tournament, before eventually falling to the 33-year-old in the final by almost a reverse score-line.
If she can hold her nerve in key moments, 2015 may well be the year she turns a final into a win.
Career Slam Best: Final, French Open (2014)
Odds in 2015: 7/2
Maria Sharapova
Heading into the WTA Finals, much of the focus was on the Russian’s chances of overhauling Serena Williams to claim the year-end No. 1 spot.
It seemed an improbable prospect in May, when Sharapova was ranked No. 7, but her second French Open title in three years catapulted her into life across the second half of the year.
Yet despite boasting an overwhelmingly positive record against her three opponents at the WTA Finals, she crashed out at the Round Robin stage, denying fans a chance to see whether the 27-year-old could finally beat Williams for the first time in over a decade.
Many argue Sharapova remains one-dimensional, but surely no one-dimensional player wins a career slam?
Besides, while we enjoy variation, surely fundamentally we want to see players hitting the ball hard and flat exceptionally well on a regular basis?
Her grit and determination, meanwhile, is rivalled by Williams only.
She will rightly feel confident of adding to her five Slam titles, particularly at the French Open, where she has somehow stumbled across an air of invincibility in recent years.
Career Slam Best: 5x winner, Career Slam
Odds in 2015: Even
Serena Williams
Having turned 33 years old in September, 2015 could prove to be Serena Williams’ last year in tennis.
Having told the BBC in June 2013 that she wishes to “retire at her peak,” it is surely only a matter of time before age catches up with her.
Indeed, injuries plagued her recent Pacific-Asia tour, although she did of course win an incredible fifth WTA Finals to add to her 18 Slams.
Her 18th came at the U.S. Open in September, of course, bringing her level with Chris Evert and Martina Navratilova.
With Steffi Graf way ahead on 22—surely an unreachable tally—one more Slam to put her second outright may well prove enough to content this legendary sportsman.
Fitness and health permitting, it will happen in 2015.
It’s just a matter of where and when.
Career Slam Best: 18x winner, Career Slam
Odds in 2015: 1/4
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