UFC 181: Early Predictions for Hendricks vs. Lawler 2 Main Event

UFC 181 will see two championship belts up for grabs, and the rematch between Johny Hendricks and Robbie Lawler promises to end the night with an exclamation mark. 

How could the two free-swinging welterweights not put on a show to remember? Even with an electric co-main event between Anthony Pettis and Gilbert Melendez on tap, the main event figures to be the favorite to take home fight of the night honors. 

After all, there's a reason it was chosen as the main event. The two landed a combined 308 significant strikes in their first five-round brawl, which saw Hendricks take the title by the narrowest of margins.

The one they call Ruthless has done his part to earn a rematch since then, though. While Hendricks has been inactive, Lawler earned impressive victories over Jake Ellenberger and Matt Brown en route to another shot at UFC gold.

Here's a look at all the information you'll need to catch the sequel along with an early preview and prediction.

When: Saturday, Dec. 6

Start Time: Fight Pass Prelims at 7 p.m. ET; Fox Sports 1 Prelims at 8 p.m. ET; Main Card PPV at 10 p.m. ET

Where: Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas

Live Stream: UFC.tv

Hendricks		Lawler
16-2	Record	24-10, 1 NC
5'9"	Height	5'11"
170	Weight	170
8	KO/TKO	19
1	Sub.	1
7	Dec.	4
-235	Odds	+220

Odds via Odds Shark as of Sunday, Nov. 30 at 10:30 p.m. ET.

Fight Preview

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

There's a reason these two put on a show in their first go-round. Each fighter has a penchant for trying to knock his opponent's head off his shoulders. With the title on the line, we saw both Lawler and Hendricks swing for the fences, looking to win the fight at a moment's notice. 

It's the type of fighting that makes for legendary fights. It's also the kind that probably shortens careers. However, it's the smartest path to victory for only one combatant—the challenger.

Looking at the statistical breakdown of these two fighters, they are almost identical in the stand-up game. 

Hendricks		Lawler
3.61	Strikes Landed/Min.	3.39
46%	Accuracy	42%
3.62	Strikes Absorbed/Min.	3.22
56%	Defense	63%
4.25	Takedowns/15 Min.	1.07
47%	Takedown Accuracy	68%
61%	Takedown Defense	65%
11:18	Average Fight Time	9:35

However, there's a glaring difference between the two. Hendricks is the much more accomplished grappler. This is a shock to no one. Bigg Rigg's background as a collegiate wrestler at Oklahoma State has been well-publicized and shows in the Octagon when the new champion chooses to showcase it. 

Lawler's takedown defense isn't anything special. Granted, it's not a complete walk in the park taking down the contender, but he defends only 65 percent of takedown attempts, per FightMetric. 

It's no coincidence that Hendricks attempted the most takedown attempts in Round 5 of their classic title fight. He had finally figured out that using his greatest strength was an easy way to win the round. The key to this bout will be how quickly Bigg Rigg goes back to that strategy. 

Prediction

Matt Strasen/Associated Press

Using five rounds of action between these two, this is still a tough fight to call. Former welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre predicts the bout will ultimately come down to how well Hendricks deals with a layoff that extends back to his first bout with Lawler back in March, via MMAFighting.com:

"

The first fight was very close. They gave it to Hendricks. I thought, personally, Hendricks won the fight, but a lot of people believe Lawler won. This time, I don't know. Hendricks was out for a long time, but if he keeps that same explosiveness ... I think he kind of lost it in his fight with Lawler. He didn't look as powerful as he normally was. The good old Johny Hendricks as he's always been, I believe Hendricks is supposed to win.

"

It's hard to disagree with the former kingpin of the welterweight division on this one. Ultimately, Hendricks is the champion, and it's his fight to lose. 

However, just how close the bout is feels like it's entirely up to him. Much like Dan Henderson—who had an impressive wrestling pedigree in his own right—it feels like Hendricks is never one to shy away from standing toe-to-toe with anyone, even if it means abandoning the most clear advantage he has. 

If the champion utilizes his wrestling earlier and more often, he could finish Lawler. That doesn't seem likely, though. Look for Hendricks to exchange leather with his aggressive opponent yet again and squeak out yet another decision victory. 

Hendricks via unanimous decision.

All fight statistics used in this article via FightMetric unless otherwise noted.