Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs: Analysis and Pick

Mississippi State started the season 5-1 against the spread, seemingly underrated on the betting lines, but the Bulldogs have now gone 1-3 ATS over their past four games. MSU will try to bounce back after suffering its first loss of the season when it hosts 3-7 Vanderbilt on Saturday night in Starkville.

Point spread: The Bulldogs opened as 30.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 39.6-15.9 Bulldogs

Why the Vanderbilt Commodores can cover the spread

The Commodores started slowly this season, losing five of their first six games and starting 0-3 ATS. But then Vandy's lines got a little out of whack, and it has gone 5-2 ATS over its last seven games. Last time out, the Commodores lost to Florida 34-10, missing the cover as 14-point home dogs, but they had that spread covered heading into the fourth quarter before running out of gas.

Vandy also covered earlier this season as a 16-point dog at Kentucky, a 33-point dog at Georgia and a 22-point dog at Missouri. Finally, the Commodores are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as road dogs and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 SEC road games. Perhaps they can catch the Bulldogs on an emotional downswing.

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread

The Bulldogs had their hopes of a perfect season spoiled by a 25-20 loss at Alabama, but they're not out the running for a spot in the College Football Playoff, so this is no time for a letdown. Mississippi State outgained the Tide 428-335, but three turnovers, all in Alabama territory, spelled doom.

MSU garnered a back-door cover as a 10-point road dog. For the season, the Bulldogs rank 20th in the country in rushing at 243 yards per game and 21st against the run, allowing just 126 yards per game. Numbers like those are usually conducive to winning games and covering spreads in college football.

Smart pick

Mississippi State is probably going to win this game; it's just a matter of the final tally. But while the Bulldogs are 2-4 ATS this season as double-digit favorites, the Commodores are 4-2 ATS as double-digit dogs. So the smart choice here is with Vandy and the points.

Betting trends

• Vanderbilt is 1-5 SU in its last six games when playing Mississippi State.
• Mississippi State is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.