Carolina Panthers vs. Baltimore Ravens: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Baltimore Ravens are just 1-3 against the spread in their last four games as favorites at home, but they have only lost four times in 39 games in this situation.

The Carolina Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as dogs on the road. So two teams trending in different directions meet when the Ravens entertain the Panthers Sunday afternoon in Baltimore.

Point spread: The Ravens opened as 2.5-point favorites and the number remains around three points as of Friday, while the total was 40.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 23.3-18.6 Panthers

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

The Panthers started 2-0 both SU and ATS this season, with wins/covers over Tampa Bay and Detroit. But Carolina suffered a bit of a letdown Sunday night, losing at home to Pittsburgh, 37-19.

The Panthers only trailed by one score going into the third quarter against the Steelers, but a fumble and a key penalty led to the floodgates opening, as Carolina gave up 28 second-half points. The Panthers, however, believe that game was just a bump in the road.

Going back to the end of 2012, Carolina is 18-6 SU and 15-8-1 ATS in its last 24 games.

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

After losing their season opener at home to Cincinnati, the Ravens have won two in a row, including a 26-6 decision over the Steelers two Thursdays ago and a 23-21 victory at Cleveland last Sunday. Baltimore outrushed the Browns, 160-91, getting 91 yards on 18 carries from rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro and 63 yards on 11 carries from Justin Forsett.

And QB Joe Flacco hit new WR Steve Smith for a big gain near the end, setting up the game-winning field goal. Smith has already caught 18 balls this season for 290 yards. The Ravens have now outgained and outrushed all three of their opponents this year.

Smart Pick

The Panthers came up empty Sunday night, but that only makes them dangerous next time out.

While the computer likes them to win here, the Ravens almost never lose SU as home chalk and Odds Shark believes Carolina will regress significantly from its 12-4 mark a year ago.

Trends

• The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Carolina's last 13 games
• Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last five games at home
• Baltimore is 35-4 SU in its past 39 games as home favorites

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.