NBA Draft: What To Expect, Picks 1-5

This set of three articles has been a little pet project of mine.  People are always jockeying for position in the draft, but no one has any idea what to expect given their draft position. 

This might seem like a stupid question given that this year the first pick will be probably be Michael Beasley and last year it was Greg Oden. However, in the NFL, coaches and GMs have draft cards that say the first pick is worth X amount of points and the second is worth X-20 points, and so on. 

My concept is similar.  It says, if you have the first pick in the draft, how have previous #1’s faired, on average?

I went to www.basketball-reference.com, downloaded the data, and estimated production for each of the first 15 draft picks.  I estimated a player efficiency rating (PER) for each player.  I had no idea that the calculation was so complicated and I did take a few shortcuts so it is not exactly equal to the one on Basketball-Reference.com, but it’s close enough.

I looked at the first three seasons (the length of a rookie contract without an extension) and averaged the following season statistics for each of the first 15 picks: PER, points per game (PPG), rebounds per game (RPG), and assists per game (APG).  I don’t particularly like per game statistics, but everyone knows them so they’ll make for a good comparison.

Generally speaking, the NBA scouts have it right; average PER decreases with just about every drop in the draft order.  I say “just about” because the #3 pick has a higher aPER than the #2 pick.  Let’s just call that the “Darko effect” and leave well enough alone.

There’s a couple of caveats here.  This doesn’t include the most recent year of data.  So, Chris Paul’s outstanding season is not included.  It also goes back to 1989, the first year the NBA only did two rounds of drafting.

On to the picks!

1. PER = 22.1, PPG = 17.8, RPG =8.5, APG =2.7

      Biggest Score: LeBron James (Best season = 2005)

      No surprises here, we are all witnesses to “The King,” who’s managed to live up to the ginormous hype following his selection at #1.  Now, if the LBJ could just work on getting some teammates.

      Biggest Flop: Michael Olowokandi (Worst season = 2000)

Shockingly, the biggest flop was NOT Kwame Brown.  Who doesn't love the Kandi man?  He was a cute story coming out of Pacific, a college he looked up in a book.  This same book did not contain the details of how to score and rebound.  In 2000, the Clippers flagship center sunk, badly, to the tune of 8.5 PPG and 6.4 RPG.  In terms of PER, the Kandi man owns three of the five worst seasons.

2. PER = 18.4, PPG = 12.5, RPG =5.8, APG =3.0

      Biggest Score: Steve Francis (1999)

Stevie franchise had a great rookie season in which he shared ROY honors with Elton Brand. He also cried his way out of Vancouver, so there’s that too.   Later, he would go on to play for an outstanding group of players known as the New York Knicks.

      Biggest Flop: Darko Milicic (2004)

I think there’s been enough said about this. NEXT PICK!

3. PER = 19.4, PPG = 15.8, RPG =5.3, APG =3.6

      Biggest Score: Grant Hill (1996)

With all the injuries limiting his career, it’s easy to forget what a beast Hill was in Detroit. It’s hard to forget him in the hideous unis that featured this logo. though.  Hill had a pretty sick 1996 season.  According to Wikipedia, “[Hill] became the first player since Larry Bird in 1989-90 to average 20 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists in a season, an accomplishment that has not been duplicated since.”  Oh yeah, he also got a little bling-bling at the Olympics too.

      Biggest Flop: Adam Morrison (2006)

This might surprise some people.  Morrison was adored by MJ when he was picked, but was quite possibly one of the worst players in the league in 2006.  He averaged 11 PPG, but his PER was single digits.  Almost makes you want to… cry.

4. PER = 18.4, PPG = 14.3, RPG =5.5, APG =3

      Biggest Score: Chris Bosh (2005)

Now remember, the latest season isn’t in the dataset.  If it were, the dynamo that is Chris Paul would undoubtedly be occupying this perch.  In 2005, Bosh put up 22.4 PPG and 9.2 RPG, a great season for the power forward.  One drawback to the season? He did not put on a single commercial.

      Biggest Flop: Antonio Daniels (1997)

Daniels has played all over the country with stops in San Antonio, Portland, and Seattle.  His first year with the Grizzles was difficult.  He turned the ball over, a lot, 3 times a game in fact.  Daniels, though, has made a good career of it and most recently was a decent starter for the Washington Wizards.  His worst season, though, pales in comparison to Darko or especially the flop at the next pick, which might cause me to put flop in quotes for Mr. Daniels.

5. PER = 17.8, PPG = 13.8, RPG =4.8, APG =2.9

      Biggest Score Dwyane Wade (2005)

Wade’s 2005 campaign was the 2^nd best season for any player in the data.  Amazingly, it was LeBron’s 2005 season that was tops for any player.  What a draft that 2003 one was!  Shaq’s arrival signaled a new era for Wade, allowing him to drive to the hoop with abandon.  We all know what happened the next year…

      Biggest Flop:  Nikoloz Tskitishvili (2004)

Tskitishfasdjkl;fjdia Tskfikkipivle Tskitishvili is widely considered to be the major draft bust. I will not refute that.  Of the three worst seasons by #5 picks, Tskitishvili owns all three, with his worst coming 2004 after three years in the league.  His last name has also currently caused a shutdown of spell check in Word.  I get “Error – Too Many Consecutive Consonants.”

Picks 6-10 | Picks 11-15