I'm writing about the rankings heading into the masters. This year, the rankings are strange because of the Olympics last year.
Rankings right after Wimbledon:
1 Federer, Roger (SUI) 11,220
2 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 10,735
3 Murray, Andy (GBR) 9,450
4 Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 8,150
5 Del Potro, Juan Martin (ARG) 5,705
6 Roddick, Andy (USA) 5,440
These rankings will only remain like this for a couple weeks, because the Masters were played early last year, and because Del Potro will lose 700 points even if he defends all his titles from the summer.
Points from Canada are dropped on July 27 and points from Cincy are dropped on Aug. 3. From these calculations I'll also subtract the points that cannot be defended at any cost from each players.
It's a little trickier for Roddick and Del Potro because they play tournaments between Wimbledon and the Masters, so I'll give them points based on the fact that Roddick will be seeded higher for all of their tournaments which they both play in.
I'm going to show the number of points these guys have going into the masters.
Federer loses 360 points heading into the Masters this year, because he did pretty bad last year and only made the quarters in Beijing.
Nadal loses a lot more because of his success last year. So he loses 2,250 points.
Murray also did really good so he loses 1,450 points. Because his 0 point penalty for dropping out of Indianapolis expires this summer, he gain 250 from Queens. So his net loss becomes 1200.
Djokovic was another successful player during this time so he loses 1,230 points.
Del Potro didn't play in the Masters or Beijing last year. But he played in a lot of smaller tournaments whose values have been degraded or removed by the tour.
He loses 500 points because Kitzbuhel has been removed from the tour.
Another 250 is lost because Stuggart becomes an ATP 250 instead of the 500 points he earned there last year.
I think he will make the finals at L.A., so he will lose 200 points there. (Even if he wins he loses 100 points.)
Washington is the one tournament that Del Potro is defending that has been upgraded. But since he'll be seeded two, I'll put him down as the RUP for now which means that 50 points are lost.
So 1,000 points lost for Del Potro.
On to Roddick.
At Indianapolis, I'm not sure how he'll do because it will be his 1st match since Wimbledon. I'm going to assume that he is unable to get enough points at Indy to gain anything because a semifinal doesn't cut it.
At L.A., Roddick is defending 240 points. I have him down as winning L.A. though. For this reason he gets 10 points.
I also have A-Rod winning Washington for another 500 points.
Since Roddick didn't play Cincy due to injury and did bad at Canada, he only loses 150 points from all of this.
A total of 360 points gained by Roddick.
This is where the standing will be (or probably be for Delpo and Rod) going into the Masters. Going into the Masters, the Olympic points would not have been subtracted yet, but since it will happen, I have subtracted them anyway, as it will not affect rankings in any way.
You will see slightly higher point totals for the Top Four on the ATP Website going into Canada than written here (Except Murray because he failed at Beijing).
Here are the TRUE rankings.
1 Federer, Roger (SUI) 10,860
2 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 8,485
3 Murray, Andy (GBR) 8,250
4 Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 6,920
5 Roddick, Andy (USA) 5,800
6 Del Potro, Juan Martin (ARG) 4,705
A lot of people were talking about how the gap seems SO big between the players. Not so big anymore. These rankings can easily shake up even more by the end of the season.
Considering the form of Djokovic and Roddick, Roddick could easily become No. 4 by the end of the season. Del Potro has a lot to gain because he didn't play in a lot of Masters because of a low ranking last year.
Federer has to defend a bunch from the US Open this year as does Murray. Nadal can gain points because he didn't play in the ATP tour finals.
If you have any questions just post it up here. This isn't much of an opinion article so no arguments should break out. Even if my Del Potro/Roddick predictions change, neither will will go up or down by more than 100 points unless a few major upsets happen.
I'll also write about how Roddick can become No. 4 again sometime later.
Thanks for reading