Looking Forwad to a Crucial Turkish Grand Prix

Turkey is going to be the most important race thus far in the 2008 Formula 1 season. With so much at stake for so many teams and drivers, it will be a race which decides the attitude for the next three to four races. Looking at what each of the top-performing teams need at Turkey is crucial in understanding why this is true.

Ferrari

Ferrari had a one-two finish at Istanbul last year, and will come looking for another. A win here will cement their lead, and insure that they have a buffer zone for the next couple of races, at which they have typically not performed so well recently (Monaco, Canada).

Kimi believes that the car is more capable and faster than the rest of the field, and he proved this in Spain. A win for Kimi will put him far in the lead, and put that much more pressure on drivers like Kubica and Hamilton, who are finding themselves duking it out for the podium.

A win for Massa leapfrogs him to second place over Kubica and Lewis, putting him into title-contention. A 12-point lead in the Constructors is good, but it is not nearly enough to relax. They will be working 110% to keep what they have gained so far.

BMW Sauber

If BMW is going to comeback and reassert their presence as a top-field team, Turkey will be the time to do it. They are 12 points under to Ferrari, and really cannot afford to have mediocre finishes, like Heidfeld taking ninth in Barcelona.

What BMW needs here is one driver on the podium and the other taking at least fourth or fifth. If this does not occur, they could find themselves in a state such as they did last year, sandwiched between McLaren and Ferrari, and the rest of the pack. Even more importantly, the rest of the pack is looking more competitive.

Look at the spread in qualifying times for the Spanish Grand Prix. Less than a second from pole to tenth divided the drivers. Williams-Toyota, Toyota, Red Bull, Renault, and even Honda are looking ready to pounce on any mistakes the top three teams make. Spinning, pit-lane penalties, and errors on hot laps during qualifying could smash hopes for a podium for BMW. They need a reliable, super-quick race.

McLaren-Mercedes

McLaren is desperate for performance coming into Istanbul. Lewis' third-place podium finish was good, on the right track even, but not enough to bring him back into the title hunt, especially when he is finishing behind two Reds. He needs a win to put him back into the hunt. If he gets it, he will feel confident going into the next two races (Monaco, where he finished second last year, and Canada, where he won his first GP in F1). If not, the next two races will be just what Spain was, another opportunity where the pressure is on to get the podium.

Heikki, his new teammate, is in an even more dire position. Filling Alonso's shoes is no small task, but right now he is behind both BMW and Ferrari drivers, and also his teammate. He needs a podium as well. If he does not finish in the points or lower down in the points, and Mark Webber or Jarno have a great race (which is completely possible), we could see a McLaren driver behind a Red Bull or a Toyota.

People are asking what the deal is at McLaren this year. In two words, SET UP. They lost one of the best set-up drivers in Formula 1. Without Alonso's crucial experience and advice, younger, inexperienced drivers like Lewis and Heikki are having to make recommendations on the set up of the car.

So far in qualifying, this has turned out to be disastrous. When an off set-up and a tiny mistake on the hot lap combine, you get a race with Lewis and Heikki scrambling to get through the pack, unable to establish a good pace, and ending with mediocre finishes.

Well, those are the top three teams heading into Turkey, and as you can see, six drivers need one spot desperately, to hold on to title contention in the next few races.

If Kimi wins, he will have a comfortable lead for awhile. If Lewis, Kubica, or Massa, get it, they will be right back in the hunt, and the suspense will continue. If it is Heikki or Heidfeld, we could see some very interesting new standings. In the next few days, I will be looking at Williams-Toyota, Renault, Red Bull, Toyota, and Honda to see what importance Turkey has for them.