The SEC has won all seven BCS Championship games and covered the spread each time as well, but neither the oddsmakers nor the computers are picking that streak to continue.
The No. 2 Auburn Tigers will look to extend the SEC’s reign over the national title game against No. 1 Florida State Seminoles, the nation’s only unbeaten team. But they were 8.5-point underdogs to break the streak engineered by the freshman Heisman winner, quarterback Jameis Winston.
The computer is predicting a one-sided game that soars over the total, but Auburn has bucked long odds several times this season to earn this opportunity.
Auburn-Florida State point spread: Florida State opened as 6.5-point favorites, but the number was approaching nine points as of Jan. 2; the total was 67.5. (Line updates and matchup report)
Odds Shark BCS computer prediction: 49-35 Florida State
Why Florida State will cover the BCS title game spread
The Seminoles lay claim to the most complete and dominant team in all of college football. Florida State ranks sixth in total offense with the most efficient passer in the country in Winston and a potent rushing attack led by Devonta Freeman.
Their third-ranked defense makes the Seminoles the only team ranked in the top 10 in both offense and defense. Florida State also ranks second in the nation in turnover margin, with an impressive plus-17 differential.
Auburn’s offense may stack up against the Seminoles, but on the defensive side of the ball, Florida State runs away with it.
And FSU historically dominates bowl spreads, going 9-0-1 ATS in its last 10 bowl games.
Why Auburn will cover the BCS title game spread
No matter how they did it, the Tigers (12-1) survived the SEC. There’s no denying the dominance of the conference, as the SEC has won seven straight national titles, covering the spread each time as well, according to the BCS title game betting history.
Auburn is 4-1 against the spread in its last five bowls and has thrived as an underdog. The last two times Auburn entered the game as an underdog of nine points or more, it won the games outright.
The Tigers lead the NCAA in rushing, with 335.7 yards per game, and elite defenses don’t slow them down, shown by their 296 yards on the ground against Alabama.
It can be a scary bet to lay more than a touchdown against the No. 2 team in the nation, but don’t let that deter you from Florida State in this one. The Seminoles are 11-2 as a favorite of nine or more points and are 9-0-1 against the spread in their last 10 bowl games.
Florida State has proven that, not only can it beat the best teams in the country, but it can blow them out. In the four games against ranked opponents this year, the Seminoles won by a combined score of 200-35.
This year, the SEC’s reign comes to an end.
BCS Championship Game Trends:
Florida State is 9-0-1 ATS in its past 10 bowl games.
Florida State is 11-2 ATS as favorite of nine or more points.
Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five BCS title games.
SEC won and covered all seven BCS title games.
Auburn is 4-1 ATS in its past four bowl games.
Auburn has won outright in its past two times as an underdog of nine or more points.