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New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens: Betting Odds Analysis and Prediction

FOXBORO, MA - JANUARY 20:  Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots reacts after a play against the Baltimore Ravens during the 2013 AFC Championship game at Gillette Stadium on January 20, 2013 in Foxboro, Massachusetts.  (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)
Jim Rogash/Getty Images
OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistDecember 18, 2013

The New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens have met for some great games in recent seasons, with Baltimore holding the upper hand, winning three of the last five meetings, two of those victories coming in the playoffs.

New England and the Ravens get together for the seventh time in the last five seasons Sunday at The Bank with the Patriots riding one money-losing streak and one profitable streak.

 

Point spread: Ravens opened as 1.5-point favorites but bet to -2.5 as of Wednesday; the total was hovering around 45. (Line updates and matchup report)

 

Odds Shark computer prediction: 24.7-22.0 Patriots

 

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

Yes, losing Rob Gronkowski hurts, but Tom Brady almost pulled off the comeback Sunday in Miami, getting New England within a red-zone conversion of victory.

Brady rallied the Pats two weeks ago against Cleveland, the week before against Houston and the week before that against Denver. And he almost brought them back the week before that at Carolina.

New England's never dead as long as Touchdown Tommy has one more chance.

Also, the Patriots catch Baltimore on the short week, after their tough win at Detroit on Monday night, when they pulled off a late rally of their own.

 

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

Baltimore has won four games in a row, the last three in cardiac fashion. The Ravens still own the six seed in the AFC, and have to keep winning because Miami keeps winning, too. Offensively, Baltimore is still struggling a bit to find itself, but defensively it ranks ninth overall and seventh against the run.

The Ravens know what it takes to beat New England, having done so twice last year on their way toward winning the Super Bowl, including a 28-13 AFC Championship Game victory in Foxboro last January. And they also know the Pats are riding a 1-7 ATS road streak into this game.

 

Smart Pick

The computer is predicting a New England win on Sunday, but that pick might not make enough of Gronkowski's absence, which was definitely felt in the loss at Miami. The Ravens, meanwhile, look like they're on one of those rolls. Brady can cover for a lot of team faults, but he just doesn't have enough offensive options to work with. Back Baltimore.

 

Trends:

  • New England is 1-4 ATS in its last five games
  • Baltimore is 8-1 SU in its last nine games at home
  • Patriots are 1-7 ATS past eight road games
  • UNDER is 7-2 past nine Raven home games
  • Patriots 9-3 ATS past 12 games as underdogs

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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