New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

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New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction
Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

The Seattle Seahawks have won 13 home games in a row, while the New Orleans Saints have limped to a 2-6 against-the-spread mark over their last eight road games.

Monday Night Football offers up a dandy this week as Seattle hosts New Orleans in a match that sees one ugly trend that may discourage Seahawks bettors.

Point spread: The Seahawks opened as five-point favorites; the total was 46. (Line updates and matchup report can be found here.)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 31.4-29.9, Seahawks

 

Why the Saints can cover the spread

New Orleans may be the best balanced team in the league, ranking third in total offense and fifth in total defense. The Saints have won three straight, after beating Atlanta last Thursday 17-13 and own the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

A victory over Seattle will mean a lot, if New Orleans wants to host the NFC Championship Game. New Orleans backers have enjoyed Monday Night Football as the Saints are 6-1 ATS in seven recent Monday games.

They face a Seattle team that inexplicably has struggled after a bye week to the tune of a 2-11-1 ATS mark.

 

Why the Seahawks can cover the spread

Seattle ranks third in rushing and second in total defense and has won six games in a row. With a victory Monday, they can put a stranglehold on the top seed in the NFC. The Seahawks like to shove it down your throat on offense with running back Marshawn Lynch, then punch you in the face on defense.

Throw in that Seattle raucous crowd, and the place will be rocking Monday night. Seattle is 5-1-1 ATS in seven recent Monday appearances.

 

Smart Pick

Odds Shark's NFL computer is predicting a Seattle victory, but a Saints cover in a game that cruises OVER its total. The Seahawks own one of the great home-field advantages in pro sports, and New Orleans is not the same team on the road as it is at home.

In a matchup of a smashmouth outfit against a finesse offense, go with the mouth-smashers.

 

Trends:

  • Saints are 6-1 ATS past seven MNF games.
  • Seattle is 5-1-1 ATS past MNF games (failed to cover vs. Rams earlier in 2013).
  • Seahawks 2-11-1 ATS past 14 seasons after a bye week.
  • OVER is 12-1 past 13 seasons after a bye week for Seattle.
  • Saints are just 2-6 ATS past eight road games.
  • Seahawks have won 13 straight SU at home.

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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