It’s never that simple when the Jets host the Dolphins for an AFC East bash Sunday in New Jersey.
Point spread: Jets opened as 3-point favorites; the total was 38.5. (Line updates and matchup report)
Odds Shark computer prediction: 18.6-11.4 Dolphins
Why the Dolphins can cover the spread
Miami, win or lose, continues to play close games. The Dolphins' last four contests, two wins and two losses, have been decided by a total of 13 points. But as the underdog in three of those four games, Miami covered the spread in three of those last four games. The Dolphins aren't going to blow anybody away, but they won't get blown away, either.
Recent history says they can cover here as they bring a 4-1 ATS streak the past five seasons.
Why the Jets can cover the spread
New York actually out-rushed Baltimore last Sunday 102-67, and that's usually a good indicator as to who covered the spread. It didn't work Sunday for the Jets, but in the NFL teams that out-grind their foes cover about 65 percent of the time.
The New York passing attack is still a bit of a mess, but the defense did its job against the Ravens and ranks No. 1 in the league against the run, allowing just 73 yards per game.
They are 4-1 ATS in five recent home games.
Odds Shark's computer is calling for a Miami straight-up victory in a game that will stay UNDER its total. But the Jets have been good at home this year. Quarterback Geno Smith is a work in progress, but at least he's got a running game to work with.
There's not much difference between these two teams, but home-field advantage might come into play here, with the warm-weather squad coming into New Jersey in December. Go against the computer and take New York.
- Dolphins 4-1 ATS past five visits to play Jets
- Dolphins 2-7 ATS past nine road games
- Jets are 4-1 ATS past five home games
- OVER is 6-1 past seven Jets divisional home games