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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 20:  Running back Montell Owens #24 of the Jacksonville Jaguars runs the ball by defenders D'Qwell Jackson #52 and Joe Haden #23 of the Cleveland Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium on November 20, 2011 in Cleveland, Ohio.  (Photo by Matt Sullivan/Getty Images)
Matt Sullivan/Getty Images
OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistNovember 26, 2013

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-0 against the spread in their last three road games. The 2-9 Jags are on the road this week for a visit with the 4-7 Cleveland Browns.

Point spread: The Browns opened as 10-point favorites before oddsmakers said "Hey, the Browns can’t be double-digit chalk" and dropped them to seven-point chalk; the total was 40.5. (Line updates and matchup report can be found here.)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 14.4-4.3, Browns

 

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

Jacksonville has shown some life over the last few weeks, beating Tennessee, hanging with Arizona and, last week, upsetting Houston outright as 10-point underdogs. The Jags rank dead last in the league in total offense and 24th in defense, but they have played a pretty good schedule, losing to the Chiefs, Seahawks, Colts, Broncos, 49ers and Cardinals. All of them are potentially playoff teams this season.

 

Why the Browns can cover the spread

Cleveland has lost two games in a row and five of its last six, but you can't really blame the defense, which ranks fourth overall and sixth against the run. Browns quarterbacks threw for 333 yards last week against Pittsburgh, but three lost fumbles and a Steelers defensive score did them in. The Browns are 3-1 ATS over their last four home games.

 

Smart Pick

Odds Shark's predictor computer is calling for a Browns victory and cover in a game that plays UNDER its total. Jacksonville may be 2-9 and "playing" for a high draft pick, but Cleveland, with its offensive woes, probably shouldn't be favored by a touchdown over anyone. Take the points with the Jags.

 

Trends:

  • The total has gone OVER in five of Jacksonville's last seven games.
  • Jaguars covered three straight on the road.

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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