The last two Iron Bowl games have seen a total 91-14 score in favor of Alabama. But this is a resurgent Auburn Tigers team that is 10-1 and 9-2 against the spread in 2013 and which rides a perfect spread record in its past six games against SEC competition.
Point spread: Alabama opened as 9.5-point favorites and the spread was climbing in early betting; the total was 40.5. (Line updates and matchup report)
Odds Shark computer prediction: 44-21 Alabama
Why Alabama can cover the spread
Alabama is clearly on a collision course with Florida State for the BCS Championship and the last thing it will do is let its guard down along the way. Nick Saban is far too intelligent a coach to let the Tigers hang around and even attempt to derail his team's chances at a third straight national championship.
They are 12-3 ATS as a double-digit road favorite, so they don’t mind laying big points on the road against good teams.
Why Auburn can cover the spread
This is the Iron Bowl, and it is on Auburn's field. The Tigers are ranked fourth in the nation with their surprising 10-1 record and would make quite a splash with an upset win over their arch-rival. And since they come into this one after a bye week, they may be a tad more prepared than the Tide expects.
The fact they are 6-0 ATS in their past six matches against SEC foes has gotten the attention of college football bettors.
Even on the road, Alabama is the wise choice here, as the Tide has won the last two meetings by 28 and 49 points, covering both times as huge chalk. So the Tigers are better this season and this line is dramatically different. But Alabama is still the dominant force and has won nine straight by double digits.
- Alabama is 12-3 ATS past 15 games as double-digit road chalk
- Auburn is 9-2 ATS in 2013
- Alabama is 23-2 SU in its past 25 SEC games
- Auburn is riding a 6-0 ATS streak in conference games